Where the model has them
The model has Guingamp finishing around 17th in Ligue 2 this season, with a 0.37% chance of winning the title, a 4.04% chance of making the top four, and a 30.26% chance of relegation. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in their attack multiplier of 0.92 (below the league average of 1.00) and their defence multiplier of 1.14 (above the average of 1.00, indicating a weaker defence). Their attacking Elo is 1490 and their defending Elo is 1510, both of which contribute to the expected points tally of 39.8 for the season.
In attack
Guingamp's attack is rated below average with an attack strength multiplier of 0.92. Key attacking players include Teddy Averlant, who scored 5 goals last season, and Amine Hemia, who provided 5 assists and took 20 shots in just 13 appearances. Despite these contributions, the squad lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Averlant's 5 goals being the best output from last season. This, combined with the loss of Louis Mafouta, who scored 14 goals last season, means the attack looks weaker heading into the new campaign.
In defence
On the defensive side, Guingamp's defence multiplier of 1.14 indicates a unit that concedes more than the league average. Tom Ducrocq leads the way with 50 tackles won in 25 appearances and a defensive actions rate of 4.39 per 90 minutes. Abdel Hakim Abdallah and Jérémie Matumona also contribute significantly with 3.37 and 3.29 defensive actions per 90 minutes, respectively. Whilst these numbers show a solid defensive effort, the overall multiplier suggests this area remains a soft spot.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some changes but didn't drastically alter the model's view. Teddy Averlant, who scored 5 goals last season, joined to bolster the attack, but the attack multiplier still dropped from 0.98 to 0.92. Defensively, Tom Ducrocq arrived and contributes significantly with his 99 defensive actions last season, yet the defence multiplier remained at 1.14. The notable departure was Louis Mafouta, whose 14 goals last season represented a significant loss in attacking output.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Guingamp's projection revolve around their lack of a high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average. The defence, whilst showing some solid individual performances, is still rated as leakier than average. The net loss of attacking output from the departure of Mafouta further compounds these issues, making it tough for Guingamp to climb higher than mid-table this season.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Amadou Samoura | 3 | 0.38 | 38% |
| Assists | Amine Hemia | 5 | 0.38 | 31% |
| Shots | Amine Hemia | 20 | 1.54 | 92% |
| Tackles won | Tom Ducrocq | 50 | 2 | 80% |
| Fouls drawn | Amine Hemia | 31 | 2.38 | 92% |
| Fouls committed | Jérémie Matumona | 9 | 1 | 78% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Ducrocq | 4.39 | 25 |
| Abdel Hakim Abdallah | 3.37 | 25 |
| Jérémie Matumona | 3.29 | 9 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Teddy Averlant (5g), out Louis Mafouta (14g)
- Defence: in Tom Ducrocq (99 def actions), out Dylan Ourega
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._