Where the model has them
The model projects Dunkerque to finish around 8th in Ligue 2 this season, with a 3.55% chance of winning the title, 21.01% of finishing in the top four, and a 7.07% chance of relegation. They're tipped for 48.2 expected points. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength and their Elo ratings. Their attack strength multiplier is 1.05, just above the league average of 1.00, whilst their defence multiplier is 0.99, slightly below the average, suggesting a robust defence. Their attacking Elo is 1490 and their defending Elo is 1534, both solid mid-table numbers.
In attack
Dunkerque's attack is about average, reflected in their 1.05 multiplier. Thomas Robinet was their top scorer last season with 14 goals in 29 appearances, contributing 41% of their goals. He also led in shot volume with 40 shots in 29 games. Opa Sangante chipped in with 3 assists in 23 appearances. Despite these contributions, the attack lacks depth, with only Maedine Makhloufi and Théna Massock as the next best scorers, both with just 1 goal. This average attacking output is why their multiplier is only slightly above 1.00.
In defence
Defensively, Dunkerque looks slightly stronger than average, with a 0.99 multiplier. Their defensive-actions leaders are Steven N'Zonzi with 2.89 per 90, Opa Sangante with 2.83 per 90, and Allan Linguet with 2.62 per 90. Linguet also won 20 tackles in 21 appearances. This defensive solidity underpins their 0.99 multiplier, suggesting they'll concede fewer goals than most.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw a net loss in attacking output. Enzo Bardeli, who scored 9 goals last season, departed, dragging the attack multiplier down from 1.1 to 1.05. Steven N'Zonzi arrived, both as a defensive asset (45 defensive actions) and a slight attacking one (1 goal last season), nudging the defence multiplier down to 0.99 from 1.04. This shift reflects a more defensively-oriented squad post-window.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risk to Dunkerque's projection is the loss of net attacking output in the window. With Enzo Bardeli gone, they've lost a significant goal threat. This, combined with an already average attack, means they'll rely heavily on Thomas Robinet to deliver goals. If he underperforms, their attacking returns could drop, impacting their overall points tally. The defensive solidity should help, but an over-reliance on Robinet up front is a clear weakness.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Thomas Robinet | 14 | 0.48 | 41% |
| Assists | Opa Sangante | 3 | 0.13 | 13% |
| Shots | Thomas Robinet | 40 | 1.38 | 76% |
| Tackles won | Allan Linguet | 20 | 0.95 | 62% |
| Fouls drawn | Opa Sangante | 21 | 0.91 | 56% |
| Fouls committed | Allan Linguet | 21 | 1 | 71% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Steven N'Zonzi | 2.89 | 30 |
| Opa Sangante | 2.83 | 23 |
| Allan Linguet | 2.62 | 21 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Steven N'Zonzi (1g), out Enzo Bardeli (9g)
- Defence: in Steven N'Zonzi (45 def actions), out Alec Georgen
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._