Where the model has them
The model sees Rodez finishing around 3rd this season, with a title shot at 8.14% and a top four spot at 35.58%. Relegation is only a 3.16% risk, and they're expected to rack up 51.9 points. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, and their Elo ratings. Their attack strength multiplier is 1.18 (1.00 is the league average, so anything higher means a stronger attack). Their defence multiplier is 0.99 (again, 1.00 is average, but lower means a stronger defence that concedes fewer goals). Their attacking Elo is 1534, and their defending Elo is 1516. These numbers suggest a balanced side with a slight edge in attack.
In attack
Rodez's attack is slightly above average, reflected in their 1.18 strength multiplier. Key to this is Ibrahima Baldé, who scored 13 goals in 31 appearances last season, accounting for 39% of their games. He also took 47 shots, playing in 77% of games. Jean Lambert Evan's Allan provided 6 assists in 23 appearances, contributing in 26% of games. Baldé remains the top scorer in the squad with 13 goals and 0 assists, followed by Samy Benchama with 4 goals and 1 assist, and Kenny Nagera with 4 goals and 2 assists. This firepower gives Rodez a solid attacking edge.
In defence
Defensively, Rodez holds a 0.99 strength multiplier, indicating a defence just shy of league average but effective. Raphael Lipinski leads the way with 61 tackles won in 36 appearances, playing in 86% of games. The defensive-actions leaders per 90 minutes are Lipinski with 3.81, Jordan Mendes Correia with 3.52, and Clément Jolibois with 3.37. This solid defensive unit, combined with their attacking prowess, balances out their overall performance.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw Rodez's attack multiplier move from 1.14 to 1.18, and their defence from 1.00 to 0.99. The notable departure was Tairyk Arconte, who scored 14 goals last season. On the defensive side, Mathis Touho arrived, bringing 5 defensive actions, whilst Loni Laurent left. These changes have slightly bolstered their attack and tightened their defence, reflected in the updated multipliers.
Weaknesses and risks
The model doesn’t flag any specific weaknesses for Rodez. Their balanced attack and defence, combined with a strong squad and effective transfers, position them well for a top-four finish. The main risk to their projection would be an unexpected drop in form from key players like Baldé or a failure to gel defensively post-transfers. However, the current numbers suggest a stable and competitive season ahead.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Ibrahima Baldé | 13 | 0.42 | 39% |
| Assists | Jean Lambert Evan's Allan | 6 | 0.26 | 26% |
| Shots | Ibrahima Baldé | 47 | 1.52 | 77% |
| Tackles won | Raphael Lipinski | 61 | 1.69 | 86% |
| Fouls drawn | Jordan Mendes Correia | 41 | 1.28 | 78% |
| Fouls committed | Jordan Mendes Correia | 60 | 1.88 | 84% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Raphael Lipinski | 3.81 | 36 |
| Jordan Mendes Correia | 3.52 | 32 |
| Clément Jolibois | 3.37 | 29 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in -, out Tairyk Arconte (14g)
- Defence: in Mathis Touho (5 def actions), out Loni Laurent
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._