Where the model has them
The model has Boulogne finishing around 18th this season, with a 0.14% chance of winning the title, a 2.00% chance of making the top four, and a 40.20% chance of relegation. That's 37.5 expected points. The driving factors are their attack and defence strength, and their Elo ratings. Their attack strength multiplier of 0.79 (league average is 1.00) shows an attack rated below average. Their defence multiplier of 1.06 (lower is better) indicates a defence that's slightly above average but still leakier than most. Their attacking Elo is 1453 and their defending Elo is 1510, both of which align with the multipliers.
In attack
The attack multiplier of 0.79 reflects an attack that's below the league average. Looking at the key players, Martin Lecolier scored 3 goals in 15 appearances, making up 20% of their games last season. Aurelien Platret provided 3 assists in 25 appearances, contributing in 12% of games. Noah Fatar had the highest shot volume with 28 shots in 29 appearances, playing in 62% of games. Despite these contributions, Boulogne lacked a proven high-volume scorer last season, with Adrien Pinot leading the way with just 3 goals.
In defence
The defence multiplier of 1.06 shows a defence that's slightly above average but still concedes more than most. Their defensive-actions leaders are Joffrey Bultel with 4.51 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Aurelien Platret with 4.23, and Nolan Binet with 4.09. Nolan Binet won 81 tackles in 32 appearances, playing in 97% of games. This suggests a solid but not outstanding defensive unit.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minor changes to Boulogne's attack and defence. The attack multiplier moved from 0.8 to 0.79, and the defence from 1.14 to 1.06. Abdel Hbouch joined and contributed both in attack (2 goals last season) and defence (24 defensive actions). The notable departure was Corentin Fatou, who scored 6 goals last season. Defensively, they lost Siad Gourville. These changes had a marginal impact on the model's numbers.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Boulogne's projection stem from their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average. Their defence, whilst slightly above average, is still leakier than most. These factors combined point to a season where Boulogne will struggle to score enough goals to avoid the drop, aligning with their 40.20% chance of relegation.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Martin Lecolier | 3 | 0.2 | 20% |
| Assists | Aurelien Platret | 3 | 0.12 | 12% |
| Shots | Noah Fatar | 28 | 0.97 | 62% |
| Tackles won | Nolan Binet | 81 | 2.53 | 97% |
| Fouls drawn | Abdel Hbouch | 39 | 1.5 | 81% |
| Fouls committed | Noah Fatar | 42 | 1.45 | 76% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Joffrey Bultel | 4.51 | 29 |
| Aurelien Platret | 4.23 | 25 |
| Nolan Binet | 4.09 | 32 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Abdel Hbouch (2g), out Corentin Fatou (6g)
- Defence: in Abdel Hbouch (24 def actions), out Siad Gourville
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._