Monte Carlo · pre-season · 1,000,000 simulated seasons
Where every club finishes: Ligue 2 2026–27
Published
Each row is a club, ordered by expected finish. Each column is a final league position. The cell shading is how often that club finished in that spot across 1,000,000 simulations, so every row adds up to 100%. Read across a row to see a club's whole range of outcomes.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Reims | 26.13 | 17.14 | 12.73 | 9.81 | 7.77 | 6.17 | 4.95 | 3.95 | 3.12 | 2.41 | 1.85 | 1.37 | 0.97 | 0.68 | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 58.6 |
| 2Saint Etienne | 18.76 | 15.00 | 12.16 | 10.16 | 8.57 | 7.20 | 6.03 | 5.01 | 4.19 | 3.40 | 2.72 | 2.12 | 1.61 | 1.19 | 0.85 | 0.55 | 0.34 | 0.14 | 56.4 |
| 3Nantes | 10.54 | 11.22 | 10.88 | 10.16 | 9.28 | 8.40 | 7.54 | 6.55 | 5.72 | 4.85 | 3.96 | 3.23 | 2.58 | 1.93 | 1.38 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.26 | 53.6 |
| 4Metz | 9.34 | 9.77 | 9.56 | 9.03 | 8.53 | 8.00 | 7.37 | 6.71 | 6.06 | 5.40 | 4.70 | 4.02 | 3.33 | 2.72 | 2.16 | 1.60 | 1.10 | 0.62 | 52.3 |
| 5Rodez | 8.14 | 9.12 | 9.28 | 9.04 | 8.74 | 8.25 | 7.66 | 7.04 | 6.35 | 5.66 | 4.95 | 4.20 | 3.46 | 2.79 | 2.16 | 1.57 | 1.04 | 0.56 | 51.9 |
| 6Annecy | 6.78 | 8.02 | 8.47 | 8.66 | 8.52 | 8.22 | 7.84 | 7.35 | 6.74 | 6.09 | 5.34 | 4.64 | 3.90 | 3.18 | 2.49 | 1.81 | 1.27 | 0.68 | 51.1 |
| 7Dijon | 4.49 | 6.00 | 6.92 | 7.43 | 7.76 | 7.87 | 7.88 | 7.68 | 7.33 | 6.90 | 6.34 | 5.61 | 4.89 | 4.10 | 3.31 | 2.59 | 1.85 | 1.05 | 49.3 |
| 8Sochaux | 4.50 | 6.03 | 6.87 | 7.45 | 7.75 | 7.88 | 7.86 | 7.67 | 7.31 | 6.87 | 6.31 | 5.65 | 4.91 | 4.11 | 3.37 | 2.56 | 1.83 | 1.08 | 49.3 |
| 9RED Star FC 93 | 3.59 | 5.08 | 6.05 | 6.76 | 7.21 | 7.55 | 7.65 | 7.63 | 7.53 | 7.20 | 6.77 | 6.17 | 5.49 | 4.73 | 3.91 | 3.08 | 2.24 | 1.35 | 48.3 |
| 10Dunkerque | 3.55 | 4.95 | 5.91 | 6.59 | 7.05 | 7.41 | 7.57 | 7.62 | 7.47 | 7.23 | 6.82 | 6.24 | 5.59 | 4.84 | 4.06 | 3.24 | 2.37 | 1.46 | 48.2 |
| 11Montpellier | 2.42 | 3.93 | 5.06 | 6.03 | 6.75 | 7.33 | 7.72 | 7.96 | 7.96 | 7.82 | 7.39 | 6.86 | 6.12 | 5.27 | 4.33 | 3.36 | 2.33 | 1.36 | 47.4 |
| 12Grenoble | 0.42 | 0.88 | 1.40 | 1.97 | 2.63 | 3.29 | 4.05 | 4.91 | 5.78 | 6.61 | 7.47 | 8.26 | 8.87 | 9.27 | 9.40 | 9.15 | 8.52 | 7.11 | 40.9 |
| 13Guingamp | 0.37 | 0.77 | 1.22 | 1.69 | 2.22 | 2.84 | 3.50 | 4.27 | 5.05 | 5.89 | 6.78 | 7.68 | 8.53 | 9.18 | 9.76 | 10.14 | 10.19 | 9.93 | 39.8 |
| 14PAU | 0.40 | 0.76 | 1.16 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 2.67 | 3.28 | 3.95 | 4.69 | 5.47 | 6.31 | 7.19 | 8.04 | 8.94 | 9.70 | 10.46 | 11.17 | 12.07 | 39.2 |
| 15Clermont Foot | 0.15 | 0.35 | 0.64 | 0.99 | 1.39 | 1.92 | 2.52 | 3.27 | 4.03 | 4.97 | 6.07 | 7.20 | 8.37 | 9.71 | 10.84 | 11.94 | 12.78 | 12.83 | 38.0 |
| 16Nancy | 0.20 | 0.42 | 0.69 | 1.05 | 1.42 | 1.89 | 2.43 | 3.07 | 3.79 | 4.64 | 5.57 | 6.62 | 7.77 | 9.01 | 10.33 | 11.80 | 13.44 | 15.87 | 37.5 |
| 17Boulogne | 0.14 | 0.34 | 0.59 | 0.93 | 1.35 | 1.81 | 2.34 | 3.02 | 3.80 | 4.65 | 5.71 | 6.89 | 8.12 | 9.41 | 10.69 | 12.16 | 13.46 | 14.58 | 37.5 |
| 18Laval | 0.09 | 0.23 | 0.40 | 0.63 | 0.94 | 1.30 | 1.79 | 2.35 | 3.06 | 3.91 | 4.91 | 6.04 | 7.45 | 8.94 | 10.80 | 12.80 | 15.37 | 18.98 | 36.1 |
How it's built. Every one of the 306 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial + Dixon–Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Strengths are frozen at pre-season, so this is a start-of-season expectation, not a mid-season read.