Montpellier: Ligue 2 2026-27 model profile
Where the model has them
The model has Montpellier finishing around 8th this season, with a 2.42% chance of taking the title, a 17.44% shot at the top four, and a 7.05% risk of relegation. Their expected points tally is 47.4. This projection comes from their attack strength multiplier of 0.81 (1.00 is the league average, so they're below par) and a defence multiplier of 0.76 (lower means stronger). Their attacking Elo is 1468, whilst their defensive Elo stands at 1564.
In attack
Montpellier's attack is rated below average with a strength multiplier of 0.81. Mamadou Camara is the key attacking player, scoring 8 goals last season and providing 1 assist. He took 34 shots in 30 appearances. Enzo Tchato Mbiayi chipped in with 3 assists in 28 games. Nicolas Pays and Florian Tardieu are the other top scorers in the squad with 4 goals each, though Pays has just 1 assist to his name and Tardieu 2. Camara is the only player who scored more than 4 goals last season.
In defence
Their defence is stronger, reflected in the 0.76 defence multiplier. Theo Sainte Luce won 56 tackles in 25 appearances, leading the team in defensive actions. Khalil Fayad and Theo Chennahi are the other standouts, with Fayad averaging 4.67 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes and Chennahi 4.17. This defensive solidity is a clear strength for Montpellier.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw the attack multiplier drop from 0.92 to 0.81 and the defence improve slightly from 0.81 to 0.76. Mamadou Camara, who scored 8 goals last season, is the key attacking addition. Alexandre Mendy, who netted 12 goals last term, has departed. Defensively, Daylam Meddah, with 68 defensive actions last season, has come in. Nathanaël Mbuku has left.
Weaknesses and risks
The model sees Montpellier lacking a proven high-volume scorer, with their best last season netting just 8 goals. Their attack is below the league average and they lost net attacking output in the window with the departure of Alexandre Mendy, who scored 12 goals. These factors, combined with their solid but not spectacular defence, point to a mid-table finish as the most likely outcome.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Mamadou Camara | 8 | 0.27 | 23% |
| Assists | Enzo Tchato Mbiayi | 3 | 0.11 | 11% |
| Shots | Mamadou Camara | 34 | 1.13 | 77% |
| Tackles won | Theo Sainte Luce | 56 | 2.24 | 88% |
| Fouls drawn | Nicolas Pays | 42 | 1.45 | 76% |
| Fouls committed | Everson Junior | 46 | 2.09 | 91% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Khalil Fayad | 4.67 | 19 |
| Theo Sainte Luce | 4.53 | 25 |
| Theo Chennahi | 4.17 | 31 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Mamadou Camara (8g), out Alexandre Mendy (12g)
- Defence: in Daylam Meddah (68 def actions), out Nathanaël Mbuku
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._