Where the model has them
The model has Nantes finishing around 2nd place in Ligue 2 this season. The probabilities show a 10.54% chance they win the title, 42.81% for the top four, and just 1.75% of being relegated. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, and their Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 1.04, meaning they're just above the league average in attack. Their defence multiplier is 0.8, showing they're stronger than average at the back. Their attacking Elo is 1499, whilst their defending Elo is 1591. They're stepping down a level having been relegated, not promoted, so their ratings reflect a drop from the higher tier.
In attack
Nantes' attack is slightly above average, with a strength multiplier of 1.04. Their key attacking players are Killian Corredor, who scored 5 goals last season, and Ignatius Ganago, who, despite playing only 12 games, had 15 shots and scored 3 goals. Corredor also contributed 3 assists. Ganago's shot volume stands out, with 15 shots in just 12 appearances. The top scorers in the squad are Corredor with 5 goals and 3 assists, Mostafa Mohamed with 4 goals, and Fabien Centonze with 3 goals. But the model sees no proven high-volume scorer from last season, with Corredor's 5 goals being the best.
In defence
Nantes' defence is stronger than average, with a defence multiplier of 0.8. Their defensive-actions leaders are Fabien Centonze, with 6.61 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Johann Lepenant with 4.45 per 90, and Ibrahima Sissoko with 3.73 per 90. Lepenant won 76 tackles in 26 appearances. This suggests a solid backline, though the model flags their defence as a potential soft spot if the squad is broken up after relegation.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minor adjustments to Nantes' attack and defence. The attack multiplier moved from 1.06 to 1.04, and the defence stayed at 0.8. Killian Corredor, with 5 goals last season, is the key attacking arrival. The notable departure was Matthis Abline, who scored 6 goals. Defensively, Lucas Perrin arrived, contributing 78 defensive actions, whilst Nicolas Cozza left. These changes had a small impact on the model's numbers.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Nantes' projection are their lack of a proven high-volume scorer from last season and the fact they've been relegated into this division. The model has no record of them at this level, which adds uncertainty. If the squad is broken up post-relegation, their defence could become a weak point, despite the current defensive-actions leaders.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Ignatius Ganago | 3 | 0.25 | 25% |
| Assists | Killian Corredor | 3 | 0.12 | 12% |
| Shots | Ignatius Ganago | 15 | 1.25 | 83% |
| Tackles won | Johann Lepenant | 76 | 2.92 | 89% |
| Fouls drawn | Killian Corredor | 41 | 1.58 | 89% |
| Fouls committed | Lucas Perrin | 33 | 1.38 | 83% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Fabien Centonze | 6.61 | 14 |
| Johann Lepenant | 4.45 | 26 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko | 3.73 | 18 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Killian Corredor (5g), out Matthis Abline (6g)
- Defence: in Lucas Perrin (78 def actions), out Nicolas Cozza
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._