Where the model has them
The model has Laval finishing around 18th, with a 0.09% chance of winning the title, a 1.35% chance of making the top four, and a 47.15% chance of relegation. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in their multipliers and Elo ratings. The attack multiplier of 0.76 indicates an attack below the league average, whilst the defence multiplier of 1.08, higher than 1.00, suggests a defence that concedes more than the average team. Their attacking Elo of 1423 and defending Elo of 1539 further support this view.
In attack
Laval's attack is rated below the league average, with an attack multiplier of 0.76. The key attacking player is Corentin Fatou, who scored 6 goals last season, accounting for 21% of the team's total. Mathis Houdayer provided 3 assists in just 12 appearances, contributing 25% of the team's assists, and also took 11 shots in those games, showing up in 75% of matches. Despite these contributions, the squad lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Fatou's 6 goals being the best last season. This lack of firepower is a significant factor in the below-average attack rating.
In defence
Defensively, Laval is rated slightly worse than average, with a defence multiplier of 1.08. Teddy Bouriaud leads the way with 66 tackles won in 31 appearances, showing up in 87% of games. He also tops the defensive-actions chart with 4.71 per 90 minutes, followed by Jules Gaudin with 4.15 and Mathis Houdayer with 3.65. Despite these efforts, the defence is still seen as a soft spot, as indicated by the higher-than-average defence multiplier.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some changes that slightly improved both attack and defence. The arrival of Corentin Fatou, who scored 6 goals last season, nudged the attack multiplier up from 0.70 to 0.76. Defensively, Teddy Bouriaud's addition, with his 111 defensive actions, moved the defence multiplier from 1.06 to 1.08. Notable departures included Mamadou Camara, who scored 8 goals last season, and Peter Ouaneh in defence. These changes were marginal, but they did shift the model's view slightly.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Laval's projection revolve around their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average. Coupled with a defence that, whilst improved, is still leakier than average, these factors drive the model's relegation probability to 47.15%. If Laval can't find more consistent attacking threats, they'll struggle to climb the table.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Corentin Fatou | 6 | 0.21 | 21% |
| Assists | Mathis Houdayer | 3 | 0.25 | 25% |
| Shots | Mathis Houdayer | 11 | 0.92 | 75% |
| Tackles won | Teddy Bouriaud | 66 | 2.13 | 87% |
| Fouls drawn | Malik Sellouki | 47 | 1.57 | 83% |
| Fouls committed | Cyril Mandouki | 41 | 1.24 | 79% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bouriaud | 4.71 | 31 |
| Jules Gaudin | 4.15 | 19 |
| Mathis Houdayer | 3.65 | 12 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Corentin Fatou (6g), out Mamadou Camara (8g)
- Defence: in Teddy Bouriaud (111 def actions), out Peter Ouaneh
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._