Where the model has them
The model projects Nancy to finish around 18th in the 2026-27 Ligue 2 season, with a 0.20% chance of winning the title, a 2.35% chance of finishing in the top four, and a 41.11% chance of relegation. This outlook is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in the attack strength multiplier of 0.95 (league average is 1.00, with higher numbers indicating a stronger attack) and the defence multiplier of 1.27 (league average is 1.00, with lower numbers indicating a stronger defence). Their attacking Elo is 1460 and their defending Elo is 1493, both contributing to an expected points tally of 37.5 for the season.
In attack
Nancy's attack is below average, with an attack strength multiplier of 0.95. Nicolas Saint-Ruf led the team in goals last season with 6 in 24 appearances, contributing to 25% of the games. Zakaria Fdaouch provided 3 assists in 29 appearances, accounting for 10% of games. Walid Bouabdelli had the highest shot volume with 32 shots in 32 appearances, playing in 72% of games. The top scorers in the squad were Nicolas Saint-Ruf with 6 goals, Zakaria Fdaouch with 5 goals and 3 assists, and Brandon Bokangu with 3 goals and 2 assists. Despite these contributions, the attack lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Saint-Ruf's 6 goals being the best last season.
In defence
Defensively, Nancy is rated as leakier than average with a defence multiplier of 1.27. The defensive-actions leaders include Yannis Nahounou with 4.17 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Nehemiah Fernandez with 3.64 per 90, and Zakaria Ztouti with 3.54 per 90. Whilst these players contribute significantly to the defensive efforts, the overall defence multiplier indicates that Nancy concedes more goals than the league average, highlighting a soft spot in their play.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some changes that nudged the model's numbers. The attack strength multiplier improved from 0.83 to 0.95, and the defence multiplier worsened from 1.22 to 1.27. Notable departures include Patrick Ouotro, who scored 2 goals last season, and defensive player Teddy Bouriaud. These changes suggest a slight improvement in attack but a marginal decline in defensive solidity.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Nancy's projection revolve around their lack of a high-volume scorer and a defence that is leakier than average. With an attack multiplier below 1.00 and a defence multiplier above 1.00, Nancy faces the dual challenge of not scoring enough whilst conceding too many. This combination significantly increases their relegation risk, as indicated by the model's 41.11% chance of finishing in the bottom spots.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Nicolas Saint-Ruf | 6 | 0.25 | 25% |
| Assists | Zakaria Fdaouch | 3 | 0.1 | 10% |
| Shots | Walid Bouabdelli | 32 | 1 | 72% |
| Tackles won | Walid Bouabdelli | 53 | 1.66 | 84% |
| Fouls drawn | Hugo Barbier | 13 | 1.44 | 89% |
| Fouls committed | Walid Bouabdelli | 51 | 1.59 | 75% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Yannis Nahounou | 4.17 | 15 |
| Nehemiah Fernandez | 3.64 | 29 |
| Zakaria Ztouti | 3.54 | 10 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in -, out Patrick Ouotro (2g)
- Defence: in -, out Teddy Bouriaud
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._