The model makes Arsenal the title favourite, first in 61.9% of 20,000 simulated seasons, ahead of Manchester City on 33.1% and Manchester United on 1.8%. On expected points that is Arsenal 81.7, Manchester City 77.3, Manchester United 62.3. Two clubs finish in the top four more often than not: Arsenal 98.6%, Manchester City 94.9%.
At the other end, Hull City carries the highest relegation risk at 95.9%, then Ipswich on 59.9% and Coventry on 42.9%. The bottom club averages 24.7 points to Arsenal's 81.7.
Right, so here's the deal with this simulation. It's a distribution of outcomes, not a single answer. Think of it like this: it gives you a spread of where a club might land, rather than pinpointing one exact spot. It's great for understanding how wide a club's potential range is. But remember, it's blind to the chaos a real season throws at you, like injuries, fixture pile-ups, or that random bit of form. It's a snapshot of pre-season expectations, based on data we've got right now. Use it to get a feel for the landscape, but don't treat it as gospel. It's a tool, not a crystal ball. Keep that in mind as you dive into the table.
Every club, every finishing position
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 61.85 | 28.85 | 6.05 | 1.81 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 81.7 | |||||||
| Manchester City | 33.10 | 44.72 | 12.32 | 4.78 | 2.23 | 1.08 | 0.75 | 0.42 | 0.28 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 77.3 | |||||||
| Manchester United | 1.84 | 7.66 | 18.97 | 15.45 | 12.20 | 9.34 | 7.90 | 6.14 | 5.17 | 4.16 | 3.15 | 2.33 | 1.70 | 1.56 | 1.10 | 0.65 | 0.41 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 62.3 |
| Aston Villa | 1.00 | 4.78 | 13.96 | 13.65 | 12.13 | 10.19 | 8.85 | 7.32 | 6.38 | 5.32 | 4.32 | 3.45 | 2.61 | 2.23 | 1.52 | 1.12 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 60.1 |
| Liverpool | 0.65 | 3.79 | 10.51 | 11.95 | 11.07 | 9.69 | 9.16 | 7.79 | 6.99 | 6.16 | 5.29 | 4.38 | 3.57 | 2.89 | 2.50 | 1.62 | 1.09 | 0.62 | 0.27 | 0.03 | 58.4 |
| Chelsea | 0.53 | 2.34 | 7.66 | 9.27 | 9.51 | 9.61 | 8.70 | 8.39 | 7.43 | 6.98 | 6.09 | 5.64 | 4.76 | 3.81 | 3.19 | 2.55 | 1.86 | 1.11 | 0.50 | 0.04 | 56.5 |
| Brentford | 0.27 | 1.85 | 6.49 | 8.38 | 9.24 | 9.01 | 8.50 | 8.35 | 7.86 | 7.41 | 6.54 | 5.62 | 5.39 | 4.43 | 3.58 | 2.99 | 2.11 | 1.23 | 0.65 | 0.07 | 55.6 |
| Leeds | 0.22 | 1.67 | 5.76 | 7.13 | 7.77 | 8.33 | 8.40 | 8.48 | 8.14 | 7.50 | 7.06 | 6.48 | 5.95 | 4.96 | 4.15 | 3.14 | 2.45 | 1.52 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 54.8 |
| Brighton | 0.18 | 1.39 | 4.89 | 6.54 | 7.51 | 8.43 | 8.34 | 8.05 | 7.94 | 7.48 | 7.22 | 6.80 | 6.10 | 5.30 | 4.58 | 3.60 | 2.89 | 1.86 | 0.77 | 0.11 | 54.2 |
| Bournemouth | 0.12 | 1.01 | 3.86 | 5.32 | 6.49 | 7.27 | 7.66 | 7.80 | 7.81 | 7.74 | 7.56 | 7.08 | 6.64 | 6.30 | 5.24 | 4.52 | 3.72 | 2.55 | 1.16 | 0.15 | 52.9 |
| Newcastle | 0.14 | 0.83 | 3.70 | 5.49 | 6.46 | 7.31 | 7.40 | 8.03 | 7.66 | 7.84 | 7.66 | 7.37 | 6.78 | 5.90 | 5.40 | 4.54 | 3.74 | 2.42 | 1.11 | 0.21 | 52.9 |
| Everton | 0.05 | 0.42 | 2.01 | 3.00 | 3.91 | 4.93 | 5.70 | 6.45 | 7.34 | 7.43 | 7.85 | 8.10 | 8.12 | 7.76 | 7.38 | 6.77 | 5.75 | 4.44 | 2.21 | 0.39 | 50.0 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.01 | 0.31 | 1.58 | 2.37 | 3.50 | 4.28 | 5.50 | 6.13 | 6.65 | 7.55 | 8.06 | 8.03 | 8.11 | 8.04 | 8.22 | 7.42 | 6.21 | 4.87 | 2.71 | 0.44 | 49.3 |
| Sunderland | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.56 | 1.49 | 1.98 | 2.66 | 3.39 | 4.13 | 4.83 | 5.72 | 6.75 | 7.86 | 8.15 | 9.05 | 9.65 | 9.93 | 9.45 | 8.05 | 5.23 | 1.01 | 46.3 |
| Fulham | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.61 | 1.18 | 1.91 | 2.68 | 3.28 | 4.07 | 4.98 | 5.73 | 6.66 | 7.47 | 8.38 | 9.01 | 9.60 | 10.27 | 9.82 | 7.80 | 5.27 | 1.18 | 46.2 |
| Tottenham | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.60 | 1.17 | 1.72 | 2.34 | 2.85 | 3.73 | 4.47 | 5.47 | 5.85 | 6.93 | 8.12 | 8.83 | 9.06 | 10.43 | 10.72 | 9.63 | 6.55 | 1.41 | 45.4 |
| Crystal Palace | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.33 | 0.71 | 1.12 | 1.79 | 2.18 | 3.00 | 3.48 | 4.13 | 5.39 | 6.35 | 7.56 | 8.92 | 10.02 | 11.43 | 11.48 | 11.64 | 8.29 | 2.14 | 43.9 |
| Coventry | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.24 | 0.37 | 0.56 | 0.92 | 1.19 | 1.73 | 1.94 | 2.76 | 3.81 | 4.88 | 6.61 | 8.28 | 10.04 | 13.66 | 17.79 | 19.23 | 5.92 | 39.4 | |
| Ipswich | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.34 | 0.46 | 0.78 | 1.23 | 1.64 | 2.19 | 2.97 | 4.16 | 6.07 | 7.95 | 11.86 | 18.94 | 29.88 | 11.13 | 36.2 | ||
| Hull City | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 0.47 | 1.01 | 2.08 | 4.98 | 15.26 | 75.67 | 24.7 |
Each cell is the percentage of 20,000 simulated seasons in which that club finished in that position, so every row adds up to 100%. A blank cell is under 0.005%, not impossible. The xPts column is the club's average points total across those seasons. Club names link to that club's full model profile.
View the same grid as a shaded heatmap, which is easier to scan than the table above.
How it's built
Every one of the 380 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial and Dixon-Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Strengths are frozen at pre-season, so this is a start-of-season expectation, not a mid-season read.
_Generated from the BetSignals season simulation, 20,000 runs._