Crystal Palace: Premier League 2026/27 Model Projection

Where the model has them

The model has Crystal Palace finishing around 18th in the Premier League this season, with a 0.01% chance of winning the title, a 1.10% chance of breaking into the top four, and a 22.07% chance of relegation. They're projected to gather 43.9 points. This outcome is driven by an attack strength multiplier of 0.78 (1.00 is the league average, so below 1.00 is below average) and a defence multiplier of 1.01 (1.00 is average, so anything above 1.00 means they're expected to concede more than average). Their attacking Elo is 1603, and their defensive Elo is 1680.

In attack

Crystal Palace's attack is rated below the league average, with an attack strength multiplier of 0.78. Ismaïla Sarr led the scoring last season with 17 goals in 42 appearances, contributing 33% of their goals. Jean-Philippe Mateta was the shot volume leader with 78 shots in 45 appearances, playing in 80% of games. Mateta also chipped in with 14 goals and 3 assists. The arrival of Anan Khalaili, who scored 6 goals last season, adds some depth. But overall, the attack is below average and that's reflected in the model's projections.

In defence

Defensively, Palace are slightly above average with a defence multiplier of 1.01. Tyrick Mitchell leads the defensive actions with 4.06 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, followed closely by Chris Richards with 4.02 per 90 and Anan Khalaili with 3.98 per 90. Whilst this suggests a solid defensive unit, the model's slight increase in the defence multiplier to 1.01 indicates they're expected to concede more than last season.

What the window changed

The transfer window saw some key changes. Offensively, Anan Khalaili's arrival nudged the attack multiplier down from 0.81 to 0.78, adding some goal threat. Defensively, Khalaili also brought in 167 defensive actions, whilst the departure of Maxence Lacroix saw the defence multiplier rise slightly from 1.00 to 1.01. Marc Guéhi's exit, despite his 3 goals last season, didn't significantly impact the model's numbers.

Weaknesses and risks

The model's main concern for Palace is their below-average attack, reflected in the 0.78 attack multiplier. This, coupled with a defence that's only slightly above average, creates a precarious balance. The risk is clear: if they can't find the net consistently, even a solid defence might not be enough to keep them out of the relegation zone. The projected finish around 18th and the 22.07% chance of relegation underscore this risk.

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Key players (last season)

Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)

Transfer impact (model)

• Attack: in Anan Khalaili (6g), out Marc Guéhi (3g)
• Defence: in Anan Khalaili (167 def actions), out Maxence Lacroix

_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._