Where the model has them
The model projects Hull City to finish around 20th, with a 95.91% chance of relegation. This projection stems from their attack strength multiplier of 0.67 (league average is 1.00) and a defence multiplier of 1.63 (lower is better). Their attacking Elo stands at 1544 and defending Elo at 1567, both reflecting their recent promotion and the challenges of stepping up a division.
In attack
Hull City's attack is below the league average, as shown by their 0.67 multiplier. Oliver McBurnie led the team with 17 goals in 39 appearances, contributing 39% of the goals. Ryan Giles provided 8 assists in 35 games, and McBurnie also topped the shot volume with 61 shots across 39 appearances. Despite these contributions, the overall attacking strength remains subpar for the Premier League.
In defence
Defensively, Hull City is rated leakier than average with a 1.63 multiplier. Charlie Hughes leads in defensive actions with 4.17 per 90 minutes, followed by Cody Drameh at 3.88 and Matt Crooks at 3.78. Crooks also won 75 tackles in 33 appearances. Whilst these numbers show solid individual performances, the collective defensive strength is still a concern at this level.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minor tweaks to Hull City’s projections. The attack multiplier shifted slightly from 0.7 to 0.67 following the arrival of Matt Targett, who scored 4 goals last season, and the departure of Kyle Joseph, who netted 8 goals. Defensively, the multiplier moved from 1.59 to 1.63. Targett also brought defensive solidity with 112 defensive actions, whilst Amir Hadžiahmetović’s exit had a small impact. Overall, the changes were marginal.
Weaknesses and risks
The model identifies Hull City's below-average attack and leakier-than-average defence as significant weaknesses. Additionally, being newly promoted means much of the squad is unproven at the Premier League level. These factors combined create a high risk of relegation, driving the model's pessimistic projection.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Oliver McBurnie | 17 | 0.44 | 39% |
| Assists | Ryan Giles | 8 | 0.23 | 20% |
| Shots | Oliver McBurnie | 61 | 1.56 | 85% |
| Tackles won | Matt Crooks | 75 | 2.27 | 91% |
| Fouls drawn | Lucas Gourna-Douath | 35 | 2.19 | 94% |
| Fouls committed | Lucas Gourna-Douath | 24 | 1.5 | 88% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Hughes | 4.17 | 40 |
| Cody Drameh | 3.88 | 22 |
| Matt Crooks | 3.78 | 33 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Matt Targett (4g), out Kyle Joseph (8g)
- Defence: in Matt Targett (112 def actions), out Amir Hadžiahmetović
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._