Where the model has them
Everton's projected finish is around 13th place, with a 0.05% chance of winning the title, 5.47% for the top four, and a 7.04% chance of relegation. The model expects them to gather 50.0 points. This sits them comfortably in the mid-table. Driving these numbers are their attack and defence strength. The attack multiplier of 0.87 (league average is 1.00) shows they're below average in attack, whilst the defence multiplier of 0.93 (lower is better) indicates a slightly above-average defence. Their attacking Elo is 1615, whilst their defending Elo is higher at 1710, suggesting they're better at stopping goals than scoring them.
In attack
Everton's attack is rated below the Premier League average with an attack strength multiplier of 0.87. Their top scorer last season was Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall with 7 goals in 30 appearances, contributing 23% of the team's goals. James Garner led in assists with 7, appearing in 37 games. Hayden Hackney had the highest shot volume with 58 in 39 appearances, showing up in 80% of games. Despite these contributions, the squad lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Thierno Barry's 8 goals last season being the best in the squad. This below-average attack rating reflects the lack of a consistent goal threat.
In defence
Defensively, Everton is slightly above average with a defence multiplier of 0.93. James Garner again stands out with 118 tackles won in 37 appearances, a testament to his defensive contributions. The defensive-actions leaders per 90 minutes are Tim Iroegbunam with 6.1, James Garner with 4.93, and Elijah Campbell with 4.48. These numbers suggest a solid, if unspectacular, defensive unit that can hold its own in the Premier League.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minor tweaks to Everton's model numbers. The arrival of Hayden Hackney, who contributed 5 goals and 93 defensive actions last season, nudged the attack multiplier down from 0.89 to 0.87 and the defence multiplier from 0.94 to 0.93. The departure of Jack Grealish, who scored 2 goals last season, had a minimal impact on the attack. Idrissa Gueye's exit slightly weakened the defence, but the addition of Hackney's defensive contributions balanced this out. Overall, the changes were marginal and didn't materially alter the team's projected performance.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concern for Everton is their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average. This, coupled with their slightly above-average defence, positions them for a mid-table finish around 13th. The risk lies in their inability to consistently find the net, which could see them struggle against stronger sides and miss out on the opportunities their defence creates to keep them in games.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 7 | 0.23 | 23% |
| Assists | James Garner | 7 | 0.19 | 19% |
| Shots | Hayden Hackney | 58 | 1.49 | 80% |
| Tackles won | James Garner | 118 | 3.19 | 92% |
| Fouls drawn | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 47 | 1.57 | 83% |
| Fouls committed | Hayden Hackney | 56 | 1.44 | 74% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Iroegbunam | 6.1 | 28 |
| James Garner | 4.93 | 37 |
| Elijah Campbell | 4.48 | 16 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Hayden Hackney (5g), out Jack Grealish (2g)
- Defence: in Hayden Hackney (93 def actions), out Idrissa Gueye
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._