Where the model has them
The model projects Sunderland to finish around 16th in the Premier League this season, with a 0.01% chance of winning the title, a 2.15% chance of securing a top-four finish, and a 14.29% chance of relegation. They’re expected to end the season with 46.3 points. This outlook is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 0.8, which is below the league average of 1.00, and their defence multiplier of 0.96, which is slightly better than average. Their attacking Elo rating of 1561 and defending Elo of 1685 further support this projection.
In attack
Sunderland’s attack is rated below average, reflected in their attack strength multiplier of 0.8. Last season, Brian Brobbey was their top goal scorer with 7 goals in 31 appearances, accounting for 23% of their games. Granit Xhaka led in assists with 6 in 34 appearances, making up 18% of games. Habib Diarra had the highest shot volume with 22 shots in 20 appearances, playing in 70% of games. Despite these contributions, their attack lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Brobbey’s 7 goals being the highest in the squad. Nilson Angulo, who joined this summer, adds some promise with his 6 goals and 4 assists last season, but overall, the attack remains a concern.
In defence
On the defensive side, Sunderland fares slightly better with a defence multiplier of 0.96, indicating they concede fewer goals than the average team. Enzo Le Fée was the standout last season with 89 tackles won in 36 appearances, playing in 97% of games. The defensive-actions leaders per 90 minutes are Le Fée with 3.97, Nordi Mukiele with 3.84, and Reinildo Mandava also with 3.84. This suggests a solid, if unspectacular, defensive unit that should help them avoid the worst end of the table.
What the window changed
The summer transfer window saw some minor tweaks to Sunderland’s squad. Nilson Angulo’s arrival bolsters both the attack, moving the attack multiplier from 0.77 to 0.8, and the defence, with his 104 defensive actions last season. The departure of Eliezer Mayenda, who scored 2 goals last season, and Lutsharel Geertruida doesn’t significantly impact the model’s projections. Overall, the changes were marginal, with the defence multiplier remaining at 0.96.
Weaknesses and risks
The model’s main concern for Sunderland is their below-average attack, lacking a high-volume scorer. This, combined with their slightly above-average defence, places them in a precarious position, likely hovering around mid-table. The risk is that without a significant improvement in attack, they could find themselves in a relegation battle, especially if their defence starts to falter.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Brian Brobbey | 7 | 0.23 | 23% |
| Assists | Granit Xhaka | 6 | 0.18 | 18% |
| Shots | Habib Diarra | 22 | 1.1 | 70% |
| Tackles won | Enzo Le Fée | 89 | 2.47 | 97% |
| Fouls drawn | Reinildo Mandava | 35 | 1.4 | 76% |
| Fouls committed | Nilson Angulo | 47 | 1.47 | 78% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Enzo Le Fée | 3.97 | 36 |
| Nordi Mukiele | 3.84 | 32 |
| Reinildo Mandava | 3.84 | 25 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Nilson Angulo (6g), out Eliezer Mayenda (2g)
- Defence: in Nilson Angulo (104 def actions), out Lutsharel Geertruida
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._