Where the model has them
The model projects Fulham to finish around 16th in the Premier League this season, with a 0.01% chance of winning the title, 1.93% chance of making the top four, and a 14.24% chance of relegation. This outlook is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in their respective multipliers. The attack multiplier stands at 0.79 (1.00 being the league average), indicating an attack below the average, whilst the defence multiplier is 0.95, showing a defence slightly stronger than average. Their attacking Elo is 1636 and defending Elo 1680, further illustrating a team that leans more on solid defending than potent attacking.
In attack
Fulham's attack is rated below the league average with a multiplier of 0.79. Key players in this area include Alex Iwobi, who contributed 4 goals and 3 assists last season, and Rodrigo Muniz, whose shot volume stood at 20 shots in 20 appearances. Despite these contributions, the squad lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Gonzalo García being the top scorer last season with 6 goals. This below-average attack rating suggests that Fulham may struggle to find the net consistently this season.
In defence
On the defensive side, Fulham fares slightly better with a defence multiplier of 0.95, indicating a unit that concedes fewer goals than the average Premier League team. Kenny Tete leads the defensive actions with 64 tackles in 22 appearances, followed by Antonee Robinson with 4.74 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, and Ryan Sessegnon with 3.95 per 90. This defensive solidity provides a foundation for Fulham, but it's clear the team's strength lies more in defence than attack.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some shifts in Fulham's dynamics. The arrival of Gonzalo García, who scored 6 goals last season, slightly bolstered the attack, though the departure of Harry Wilson, who netted 10 goals, offset this gain, resulting in an attack multiplier drop from 0.92 to 0.79. Defensively, the addition of Shea Charles, noted for his 92 defensive actions, improved the defence multiplier from 1.00 to 0.95, despite the exit of Saša Lukić. These changes suggest a net loss in attacking potency and a slight gain in defensive solidity.
Weaknesses and risks
The model identifies Fulham's lack of a high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average as primary weaknesses. The net loss of attacking output from the transfer window exacerbates this risk. These factors combined point to a season where Fulham may find scoring difficult, relying heavily on their slightly above-average defence to mitigate the impact of their underperforming attack. This imbalance presents the main risk to their projected mid-table finish.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Alex Iwobi | 4 | 0.14 | 14% |
| Assists | Alex Iwobi | 3 | 0.11 | 11% |
| Shots | Rodrigo Muniz | 20 | 1 | 65% |
| Tackles won | Kenny Tete | 64 | 2.91 | 96% |
| Fouls drawn | Kenny Tete | 31 | 1.41 | 82% |
| Fouls committed | Ryan Sessegnon | 33 | 1.27 | 77% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Kenny Tete | 4.84 | 22 |
| Antonee Robinson | 4.74 | 21 |
| Ryan Sessegnon | 3.95 | 26 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Gonzalo García (6g), out Harry Wilson (10g)
- Defence: in Shea Charles (92 def actions), out Saša Lukić
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._