Where the model has them
The model has Nottingham Forest finishing around 15th this season. The probabilities tell a clear story: title chances are 0.01%, top four 4.26%, relegation 8.02%. Expected points sit at 49.3. This projection is driven by the attack and defence strength, alongside the Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 0.86 (league average is 1.00, higher means stronger attack), and the defence multiplier is 0.94 (league average is 1.00, lower means stronger defence). Their attacking Elo is 1625, whilst their defending Elo stands at 1702.
In attack
Forest's attack is rated below the league average with a strength multiplier of 0.86. Morgan Gibbs-White leads the way with 18 goals and 7 assists in 50 appearances last season. He also had the highest shot volume with 84 shots. Arnaud Kalimuendo, who joined this summer, chipped in with 7 goals last season. Despite these contributions, the attack remains a weak spot. Gibbs-White and Kalimuendo will need to step up significantly if Forest are to improve their attacking output.
In defence
Defensively, Forest are slightly below average with a defence multiplier of 0.94. Neco Williams leads the way in tackles won with 133 in 51 appearances. In defensive actions per 90 minutes, Williams (4.52), Ibrahim Sangaré (4.51), and Nicolás Domínguez (4.36) are the standouts. This solid defensive core helps keep their defence multiplier low, making them a bit tougher to break down than their overall position might suggest.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some shifts but nothing game-changing. The attack multiplier moved from 0.91 to 0.86, whilst the defence went from 0.96 to 0.94. Arnaud Kalimuendo's arrival adds some attacking threat, having scored 7 goals last season. However, the departure of Elliot Anderson, who scored 4 goals last term, means a net loss in attacking output. Defensively, Tyler Bindon came in and brings experience with 87 defensive actions last season. Anderson's departure also impacted the defence, though less severely.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concerns for Forest revolve around their below-average attack. Losing net attacking output in the window doesn't help. If Gibbs-White and Kalimuendo can't consistently deliver goals, Forest will struggle to climb the table. Their defence, whilst solid, won't be enough to carry them if the attack remains sluggish. This is why the model sees them hovering around mid-table, with a slight risk of slipping towards the relegation zone if things don't click upfront.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Morgan Gibbs-White | 18 | 0.36 | 32% |
| Assists | Dilane Bakwa | 4 | 0.15 | 15% |
| Shots | Morgan Gibbs-White | 84 | 1.68 | 84% |
| Tackles won | Neco Williams | 133 | 2.61 | 86% |
| Fouls drawn | Neco Williams | 73 | 1.43 | 77% |
| Fouls committed | Igor Jesus | 54 | 1.1 | 71% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Neco Williams | 4.52 | 51 |
| Ibrahim Sangaré | 4.51 | 41 |
| Nicolás Domínguez | 4.36 | 39 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Arnaud Kalimuendo (7g), out Elliot Anderson (4g)
- Defence: in Tyler Bindon (87 def actions), out Elliot Anderson
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._