Where the model has them
The model projects Ipswich to finish around 19th in the 2026-27 Premier League, with a 59.95% chance of relegation, a 0.10% chance of a top-four finish, and a 0.00% chance of winning the title. This projection is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 0.82 (below the league average) and a defence multiplier of 1.34 (above average, meaning they are expected to concede more goals). Their attacking Elo of 1606 and defending Elo of 1605, both reflecting their status as a newly promoted side, further support this outlook.
In attack
Ipswich’s attack is rated below the league average, reflected in their attack strength multiplier of 0.82. Key attacking players include Jack Clarke, who scored 16 goals last season, and Marcelino Núñez with 8 assists. Emersonn led in shot volume with 42 shots in 27 appearances. Despite these players, the overall attacking output remains subpar for the Premier League, which is why the model sees their attack as a weak link.
In defence
On the defensive side, Ipswich’s defence multiplier of 1.34 suggests they will concede more goals than the average team. Leaders in defensive actions include Florentino Luís, with 6.2 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, and Azor Matusiwa, with 4.49 per 90. Whilst these numbers look solid, the higher defence multiplier indicates that, overall, their defence is expected to be a soft spot in the top flight.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minimal impact on Ipswich’s model projections. The attack multiplier moved slightly from 0.84 to 0.82 following the arrival of Anis Mehmeti, who scored 10 goals last season, and the departure of Ivan Azón, who netted 5 goals. Defensively, the arrival of Florentino Luís, noted for his 148 defensive actions, balanced out the loss of Jens Cajuste. Overall, the model’s view on their defence and attack remains largely unchanged.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Ipswich’s projection revolve around their below-average attack and above-average (worse) defence. Being newly promoted, much of their squad is unproven at this level, which compounds these weaknesses. The model sees these factors combining to likely result in a struggle for Premier League survival.
---
Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Jack Clarke | 16 | 0.36 | 33% |
| Assists | Marcelino Núñez | 8 | 0.22 | 19% |
| Shots | Emersonn | 42 | 1.56 | 78% |
| Tackles won | Azor Matusiwa | 88 | 2 | 89% |
| Fouls drawn | Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | 73 | 1.7 | 77% |
| Fouls committed | Daizen Maeda | 13 | 1.18 | 82% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Florentino Luís | 6.2 | 33 |
| Azor Matusiwa | 4.49 | 44 |
| Cameron Humphreys | 4.33 | 23 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Anis Mehmeti (10g), out Ivan Azón (5g)
- Defence: in Florentino Luís (148 def actions), out Jens Cajuste
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._