Where the model has them
The model projects Leeds to finish around 8th place in the Premier League this season. The title challenge is a long shot at 0.22%, but the top four looks more achievable with a 14.79% chance. Relegation is a distant concern at just 2.37%. The expected points tally is 54.8. This projection is driven by a balanced attack and defence. The attack strength multiplier is 1.06, a touch above the league average of 1.00, whilst the defence multiplier sits at 0.98, slightly below the average. This indicates a solid, if unspectacular, attacking force and a defence that's a fraction better than average. The attacking Elo rating of 1646 and defending Elo of 1686 reinforce this view.
In attack
The attack is led by Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who netted 14 goals last season, contributing 37% of the team's total. Harry Wilson, with 10 goals and 7 assists, is the key creator, providing 17% of the team's assists. Calvert-Lewin also leads in shot volume with 66 attempts in 35 appearances. The arrival of Wilson has significantly bolstered the attack, moving the multiplier from 0.95 to 1.06. Alongside Calvert-Lewin and Wilson, Noah Okafor chipped in with 8 goals and 1 assist. This attacking trio should keep Leeds competitive in the final third.
In defence
Defensively, Leeds are slightly above average, with a multiplier of 0.98. The defensive-actions leaders are Sean Longstaff with 4.82 per 90 minutes, Ethan Ampadu with 4.29, and James Justin with 4.26. Ampadu leads in tackles won with 81 in 35 appearances. The defence, whilst not spectacular, is solid and should limit the damage against stronger sides. The departure of Pascal Struijk, who didn't score but was a defensive stalwart, has been offset by the arrival of Tarik Muharemović, who contributed 120 defensive actions last season.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw key changes that nudged the model's numbers. Harry Wilson's arrival boosted the attack multiplier from 0.95 to 1.06, whilst the defence multiplier improved from 1.04 to 0.98 thanks to Tarik Muharemović coming in. Pascal Struijk's departure, though, was a double-edged sword: he didn't score but was a defensive rock. His absence is cushioned by Muharemović's defensive contributions.
Weaknesses and risks
The model doesn't flag any glaring weaknesses for Leeds this season. The balanced attack and slightly above-average defence, coupled with key player contributions, suggest a stable campaign. The main risk to the projection would be if the new signings, particularly Wilson and Muharemović, fail to settle quickly. But based on the numbers, that looks unlikely.
---
Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 14 | 0.4 | 37% |
| Assists | Harry Wilson | 7 | 0.2 | 17% |
| Shots | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 66 | 1.89 | 91% |
| Tackles won | Ethan Ampadu | 81 | 2.31 | 89% |
| Fouls drawn | Gabriel Gudmundsson | 56 | 1.75 | 91% |
| Fouls committed | Ethan Ampadu | 50 | 1.43 | 80% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Longstaff | 4.82 | 23 |
| Ethan Ampadu | 4.29 | 35 |
| James Justin | 4.26 | 31 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Harry Wilson (10g), out Pascal Struijk (0g)
- Defence: in Tarik Muharemović (120 def actions), out Pascal Struijk
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._