Where the model has them
The model projects Brentford to finish around 5th place this season. The probabilities show a 0.27% chance of winning the title, 16.98% chance of securing a top-four spot, and a 1.95% chance of relegation. The expected points tally is 55.6. This projection is driven by the attack strength multiplier of 1.11 (league average is 1.00) and the defence strength multiplier of 1.02 (lower than 1.00 indicates a stronger defence). The attacking Elo stands at 1661, whilst the defensive Elo is slightly higher at 1663.
In attack
Brentford's attack is rated above average with a strength multiplier of 1.11. Igor Thiago was the standout performer last season, netting 20 goals in 37 appearances, accounting for 38% of the team's goals. His shot volume was also impressive with 65 shots in those 37 games. Jaidon Anthony, who joined this summer, contributed 8 goals last season and is expected to bolster the attack further. The top scorers in the squad are Igor Thiago with 20 goals and 1 assist, Kevin Schade with 8 goals and 3 assists, and Jaidon Anthony with 8 goals and 2 assists.
In defence
Defensively, Brentford holds a strength multiplier of 1.02, indicating a slightly above-average defence. Mamadou Sangare leads the way in tackles won with 96 in 31 appearances, and he also contributed 4 assists. The defensive-actions leaders per 90 minutes are Mamadou Sangare with 5.07, Vitaly Janelt with 4.04, and Yehor Yarmolyuk with 3.79. This defensive solidity, combined with the attacking prowess, paints a balanced picture.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier moved from 1.03 to 1.11, largely thanks to the arrival of Jaidon Anthony, who scored 8 goals last season. On the defensive side, the multiplier improved from 1.05 to 1.02 with the addition of Mamadou Sangare, who contributed 143 defensive actions. The departure of Jordan Henderson, who scored 1 goal last season, had a minimal impact on both attack and defence.
Weaknesses and risks
The model doesn't flag any specific weaknesses for Brentford this season. The balanced attack and defence, coupled with key arrivals bolstering both ends of the pitch, suggest a well-rounded squad. The main risk to the projection would be injuries to key players like Igor Thiago or Mamadou Sangare, which could disrupt the team's balance.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Igor Thiago | 20 | 0.54 | 38% |
| Assists | Mamadou Sangare | 4 | 0.13 | 13% |
| Shots | Igor Thiago | 65 | 1.76 | 78% |
| Tackles won | Mamadou Sangare | 96 | 3.1 | 94% |
| Fouls drawn | Mamadou Sangare | 47 | 1.52 | 84% |
| Fouls committed | Igor Thiago | 72 | 1.95 | 87% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Mamadou Sangare | 5.07 | 31 |
| Vitaly Janelt | 4.04 | 25 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk | 3.79 | 36 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Jaidon Anthony (8g), out Jordan Henderson (1g)
- Defence: in Mamadou Sangare (143 def actions), out Jordan Henderson
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._