Where the model has them
The model has Brighton finishing around 6th place with 54.2 expected points. There's a 0.18% chance of the title and a 13.00% chance of the top four, whilst the risk of relegation stands at 2.75%. This positioning is driven by the attack and defence strength multipliers and the Elo ratings. Brighton's attack strength multiplier sits at 0.99, just below the league average of 1.00, indicating an attack slightly weaker than the norm. Their defence multiplier is 0.93, also under 1.00, showing a defence that concedes fewer goals than average. Their attacking Elo is 1673 and defending Elo is 1698, both solid but not exceptional.
In attack
Brighton's attack, with a multiplier of 0.99, is slightly below average. The key attacking player to watch is Amario Cozier-Duberry, who delivered 9 goals and 11 assists last season in 36 appearances. He also led in shot volume with 73 shots. Luka Vušković chipped in with 6 goals in 28 appearances, though he featured in only 21% of games. Brighton lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Cozier-Duberry's 9 goals being the best last season. This could be a limiting factor in their attacking output.
In defence
On the defensive side, Brighton's multiplier of 0.93 suggests a solid, if unspectacular, backline. The defensive-actions leaders are Eiran Cashin with 5.42 per 90, Mats Wieffer with 4.49 per 90, and Diego Gómez with 4.17 per 90. Gómez also led in tackles won with 75 across 31 appearances. This defensive unit should hold up well, though it's not among the league's elite.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minor tweaks to Brighton's model numbers. The attack multiplier dipped from 1.02 to 0.99 following the arrival of Cozier-Duberry (9 goals last season) and the departure of Danny Welbeck (13 goals). Defensively, the multiplier rose slightly from 0.92 to 0.93 with Eiran Cashin (113 defensive actions) coming in and Jan Paul van Hecke leaving. These changes suggest a slightly weaker attack and a marginally stronger defence post-window.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concern for Brighton is their lack of a proven high-volume scorer. With Cozier-Duberry's 9 goals last season being the best in the squad, this could cap their attacking potential. If they fail to find consistent goals from multiple sources, this weakness could drag their points total down, impacting their projected mid-table finish.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Luka Vušković | 6 | 0.21 | 21% |
| Assists | Amario Cozier-Duberry | 11 | 0.31 | 25% |
| Shots | Amario Cozier-Duberry | 73 | 2.03 | 89% |
| Tackles won | Diego Gómez | 75 | 2.42 | 84% |
| Fouls drawn | Amario Cozier-Duberry | 37 | 1.03 | 75% |
| Fouls committed | Diego Gómez | 46 | 1.48 | 81% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Eiran Cashin | 5.42 | 28 |
| Mats Wieffer | 4.49 | 25 |
| Diego Gómez | 4.17 | 31 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Amario Cozier-Duberry (9g), out Danny Welbeck (13g)
- Defence: in Eiran Cashin (113 def actions), out Jan Paul van Hecke
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._