Where the model has them
The model projects Tottenham to finish around 17th place, with a 0.01% chance of the title, 1.87% chance of the top four, and a 17.59% chance of relegation. Expected points sit at 45.4. This outcome is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 0.96 (league average is 1.00, so below average) and their defence strength multiplier of 1.18 (lower is better, so this is above average and thus weaker). Their attacking Elo is 1674 and defending Elo is 1664, both reflecting a team that is around the middle of the pack but with a slight lean towards defensive frailties.
In attack
Tottenham's attack is slightly below average, reflected in the 0.96 multiplier. Richarlison leads the way with 12 goals in 39 appearances, though he only started 28% of games. Xavi Simons chipped in with 6 assists in 39 games, but that's only 15% of games started. Richarlison also topped the shot volume with 57 in 39 games, showing he's their main man going forward. Other top scorers include Tyrese Hall with 7 goals and Micky van de Ven with 6. Despite these contributions, the attack remains under par for the Premier League.
In defence
Defensively, Tottenham are projected to be a bit of a soft touch, with a defence strength multiplier of 1.18. This is above the average of 1.00, indicating they're expected to concede more than most. Leaders in defensive actions include Rodrigo Bentancur with 4.57 per 90 minutes, Marcos Senesi with 4.47, and Mateus Fernandes with 4.43. Fernandes also won 106 tackles in 38 appearances, a solid contribution. However, the overall defensive multiplier suggests this isn't enough to make them a solid unit at the back.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some shifts but nothing dramatic. The attack multiplier moved from 0.98 to 0.96, a slight downgrade. Tyrese Hall, who scored 7 goals last season, is the key attacking arrival. On the other side, João Palhinha departed after scoring 6 goals. Defensively, the multiplier improved from 1.09 to 1.18, a downgrade. Marcos Senesi, with 159 defensive actions last season, is the notable defensive arrival. Palhinha's departure impacts both attack and defence, given his contributions at both ends.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concern for Tottenham is their defence, rated as leakier than average with a 1.18 multiplier. This weakness, combined with an attack that's only slightly below average, sets up a scenario where they could struggle to keep clean sheets and might find themselves in a relegation battle. The key risk is that their defensive frailties could outweigh their attacking contributions, leading to a season where they find themselves looking over their shoulders more often than not.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Richarlison | 12 | 0.31 | 28% |
| Assists | Xavi Simons | 6 | 0.15 | 15% |
| Shots | Richarlison | 57 | 1.46 | 74% |
| Tackles won | Mateus Fernandes | 106 | 2.79 | 95% |
| Fouls drawn | Xavi Simons | 65 | 1.67 | 77% |
| Fouls committed | Lucas Bergvall | 34 | 1.13 | 73% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Bentancur | 4.57 | 31 |
| Marcos Senesi | 4.47 | 36 |
| Mateus Fernandes | 4.43 | 38 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Tyrese Hall (7g), out João Palhinha (6g)
- Defence: in Marcos Senesi (159 def actions), out João Palhinha
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._