Monte Carlo · 20,000 simulated seasons

Where every club finishes: Premier League 2026⁠–⁠27

Published 4 August 2026 at 10:50 BST

Each row is a club, ordered by expected finish. Each column is a final league position. The cell shading is how often that club finished in that spot across 20,000 simulations, so every row adds up to 100%. Read across a row to see a club's whole range of outcomes.

Chance of finishing there

02510204070100%

A vertical rule marks the relegation zone (the bottom 3). Hover any cell for the exact probability.
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	xPts
1Manchester City	53.20	43.11	2.93	0.49	0.18	0.06	0.03	0.01	0.01												83.3
2Arsenal	46.15	49.51	3.31	0.61	0.28	0.08	0.03	0.01	0.01												82.6
3Manchester United	0.19	1.86	18.32	14.85	11.93	10.37	8.35	6.84	5.86	5.07	3.86	3.42	2.82	2.26	1.50	1.09	0.80	0.44	0.16		59.3
4Brentford	0.12	1.30	13.48	12.85	11.15	9.94	8.46	7.81	7.05	5.91	5.03	4.37	3.58	2.98	2.15	1.66	1.09	0.71	0.35		57.7
5Chelsea	0.14	1.06	13.00	11.92	10.86	10.23	8.62	7.69	6.82	6.04	5.41	4.71	3.94	3.00	2.39	1.80	1.25	0.82	0.30	0.01	57.3
6Brighton	0.08	0.83	11.06	10.69	10.69	9.92	9.01	7.92	7.23	6.40	5.75	5.10	4.19	3.64	2.59	2.15	1.44	0.92	0.40		56.6
7Leeds	0.03	0.70	7.77	8.98	9.01	9.06	9.07	8.02	8.01	7.06	6.23	6.19	5.06	4.49	3.60	2.83	2.01	1.32	0.55		55.2
8Liverpool	0.04	0.47	7.45	8.71	8.44	8.12	8.38	7.94	7.93	7.04	6.75	5.95	5.36	4.91	3.93	3.32	2.54	1.91	0.82		54.6
9Tottenham	0.04	0.34	6.64	7.51	8.14	8.41	8.38	7.79	7.90	7.52	6.93	6.34	6.02	5.09	4.21	3.57	2.59	1.73	0.84	0.01	54.2
10Aston Villa		0.24	4.40	5.75	6.77	7.11	7.55	7.92	7.75	7.76	7.52	7.03	6.70	5.99	5.17	4.69	3.79	2.50	1.32	0.02	52.7
11Sunderland	0.01	0.16	4.01	5.75	6.59	6.98	7.64	7.70	7.79	7.54	7.51	6.93	6.84	6.25	5.87	4.78	3.77	2.49	1.34	0.04	52.5
12Crystal Palace		0.15	2.45	3.44	4.47	5.32	5.95	6.70	6.78	7.38	7.86	8.11	7.86	7.44	7.07	6.43	5.42	4.42	2.69	0.05	50.4
13Nottingham Forest	0.01	0.10	1.92	2.89	3.72	4.27	5.17	5.83	6.32	7.42	7.69	7.75	7.86	8.28	7.95	7.33	6.61	5.34	3.48	0.06	49.3
14Everton	0.01	0.08	1.39	2.39	2.85	3.50	4.30	5.59	5.92	6.41	7.19	8.03	8.19	8.33	8.78	8.47	7.75	6.55	4.21	0.04	48.4
15Newcastle		0.04	0.66	1.13	1.69	2.04	2.56	3.72	3.99	5.02	5.61	6.40	7.81	8.45	9.70	10.54	10.61	10.71	9.05	0.27	45.6
16Bournemouth		0.01	0.46	0.86	1.47	1.93	2.49	3.33	3.48	4.85	5.84	6.54	7.35	8.34	9.45	10.06	11.54	11.52	10.23	0.24	45.1
17Ipswich		0.01	0.37	0.60	0.92	1.20	1.95	2.37	3.17	3.84	4.47	5.33	6.81	7.95	9.53	11.33	12.43	14.01	13.30	0.42	43.7
18Fulham		0.01	0.32	0.46	0.65	1.18	1.50	2.05	2.87	3.23	4.29	5.13	6.07	7.84	9.34	10.97	13.56	14.87	15.18	0.50	43.0
19Coventry		0.01	0.04	0.14	0.19	0.29	0.56	0.76	1.11	1.50	2.05	2.68	3.55	4.76	6.73	8.94	12.74	19.35	33.17	1.46	38.8
20Hull City												0.01			0.03	0.03	0.08	0.38	2.60	96.88	18.9

Relegation ►

How it's built. Every one of the 380 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial + Dixon⁠–⁠Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Strengths are frozen at pre-season, so this is a start-of-season expectation, not a mid-season read.