Where the model has them
The model projects Bournemouth to finish around 9th this season, with a 0.12% chance of winning the title, a 10.31% chance of securing a top-four spot, and a 3.86% risk of relegation. This projection is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 1.08 (a bit above average) and their defence multiplier of 1.07 (slightly below average, meaning they concede more than the league average). Their attacking Elo stands at 1684, whilst their defending Elo is a touch higher at 1691, suggesting they are marginally better at stopping goals than scoring them.
In attack
Bournemouth's attack is projected to be slightly above average, reflected in their attack strength multiplier of 1.08. Key to this is Álvaro Rodriguez, who took 64 shots last season across 33 appearances. Rayan chipped in with 5 goals in just 14 appearances, accounting for 36% of Bournemouth's total goals last season. Whilst these numbers aren't earth-shattering, they do indicate a reasonably potent attacking unit. The departure of Antoine Semenyo, who scored 17 goals last season, is a blow, but the arrival of Rodriguez should soften the impact.
In defence
Defensively, Bournemouth are projected to be a touch below average, with a defence multiplier of 1.07. This suggests they will concede more goals than the league average. Their defensive-actions leaders include Lewis Cook with 5.47 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Ben Gannon-Doak with 5.16, and Tyler Adams with 4.81. The arrival of Juanlu Sánchez, who made 72 defensive actions last season, should bolster this area. Still, the loss of Marcos Senesi will be felt, making this a potential soft spot for the Cherries this season.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw Bournemouth's attack multiplier drop slightly from 1.1 to 1.08, whilst their defence multiplier improved from 1.01 to 1.07. Álvaro Rodriguez's arrival adds some attacking flair, with 7 goals last season. Defensively, Juanlu Sánchez brings in some solidity, having made 72 defensive actions last term. Antoine Semenyo's departure leaves a gap up front, whilst Marcos Senesi's exit weakens the backline. These changes have nudged the model's view of Bournemouth, but not dramatically.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concern for Bournemouth this season is their defence, rated as leakier than average with a defence multiplier of 1.07. This suggests they will concede more goals than most, which could drag their points total down. If their attack fails to fire consistently, this defensive weakness could see them slide down the table more than the model currently projects. Keep an eye on their defensive performances early in the season; they could be the key to whether Bournemouth exceed or underperform their projected 9th-place finish.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Rayan | 5 | 0.36 | 36% |
| Assists | Rayan | 2 | 0.14 | 14% |
| Shots | Álvaro Rodriguez | 64 | 1.94 | 76% |
| Tackles won | Adrien Truffert | 101 | 2.73 | 87% |
| Fouls drawn | Álvaro Rodriguez | 49 | 1.48 | 79% |
| Fouls committed | Tyler Adams | 35 | 1.46 | 79% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Lewis Cook | 5.47 | 18 |
| Ben Gannon-Doak | 5.16 | 8 |
| Tyler Adams | 4.81 | 24 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Álvaro Rodriguez (7g), out Antoine Semenyo (17g)
- Defence: in Juanlu Sánchez (72 def actions), out Marcos Senesi
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._