Where the model has them
The model projects Chelsea to finish around 6th place this season, with a 0.53% chance of winning the title, a 19.81% chance of securing a top-four spot, and a 1.65% chance of relegation. They're expected to end the season with 56.5 points. This outlook is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in their multipliers and Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier stands at 1.24 (1.00 is the league average, higher means a stronger attack), whilst the defence multiplier is 1.12 (1.00 is average, lower means a stronger defence). Their attacking Elo is 1681 and defending Elo 1657, both solid but not exceptional.
In attack
Chelsea's attack is projected to be above average, thanks to a 1.24 multiplier. Key to this are players like Morgan Rogers, who contributed 13 goals last season, and Emmanuel Emegha, who scored 8 goals in just 16 appearances. Cole Palmer leads in shot volume with 47 shots in 30 games. The top scorers in the squad are João Pedro with 18 goals and 5 assists, Enzo Fernández with 13 goals and 6 assists, and Morgan Rogers with 13 goals and 11 assists. This firepower gives Chelsea a solid attacking edge.
In defence
Defensively, Chelsea is rated slightly below average with a 1.12 multiplier. The defensive-actions leaders are Moisés Caicedo with 4.93 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Benoît Badiashile with 4.17, and Jorrel Hato with 4.08. Moisés Caicedo also won 115 tackles in 43 appearances. Whilst these numbers show a competent backline, the model sees this area as a soft spot, potentially leaking more goals than the average Premier League side.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw significant moves that nudged the model's numbers. The arrival of Morgan Rogers, who scored 13 goals last season, boosted the attack multiplier from 1.09 to 1.24. On the defensive side, Maxence Lacroix, who racked up 159 defensive actions, helped move the defence multiplier from 1.06 to 1.12. The departure of Alejandro Garnacho, who scored 2 goals, and Marc Cucurella, didn't significantly alter the model's view but were noted.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concern for Chelsea is their defence, rated leakier than average. This could be the Achilles' heel that prevents them from challenging for the top four, despite a strong attacking unit. If the defence doesn't tighten up, it could drag their points total down, impacting their final league position.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Emmanuel Emegha | 8 | 0.5 | 38% |
| Assists | Morgan Rogers | 11 | 0.22 | 22% |
| Shots | Cole Palmer | 47 | 1.57 | 90% |
| Tackles won | Moisés Caicedo | 115 | 2.67 | 86% |
| Fouls drawn | Valentín Barco | 89 | 2.34 | 92% |
| Fouls committed | Moisés Caicedo | 72 | 1.67 | 84% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Moisés Caicedo | 4.93 | 43 |
| Benoît Badiashile | 4.17 | 12 |
| Jorrel Hato | 4.08 | 26 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Morgan Rogers (13g), out Alejandro Garnacho (2g)
- Defence: in Maxence Lacroix (159 def actions), out Marc Cucurella
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._