The model makes Union St. Gilloise the title favourite, first in 55.4% of 20,000 simulated seasons, ahead of Club Brugge KV on 41.4% and Charleroi on 1.5%. On expected points that is Union St. Gilloise 77.3, Club Brugge KV 75.7, Charleroi 60.9. Four clubs finish in the top four more often than not: Union St. Gilloise 99.6%, Club Brugge KV 99.2%, Charleroi 65.5%, Gent 65.3%.
At the other end, Kortrijk carries the highest relegation risk at 75.7%, then RAAL La Louvière on 66.0% and OH Leuven on 42.6%. The bottom club averages 27.6 points to Union St. Gilloise's 77.3.
This simulation is your chance to see the full spectrum of outcomes for the rest of the Jupiler Pro League season, based on current form and the model's analysis. It's not a crystal ball, nor does it claim to pinpoint exact finishes. Instead, it gives you a spread of possibilities, showing you just how much or how little a club's position could shift. It's a tool for gauging risk and understanding the fluidity of the table, not a guide to tell you which selections to make. Remember, it doesn't account for injuries, fixture pile-ups, or the chaos that only a football season can deliver. Use it to inform your thinking, not to make your decisions for you.
What has changed since August
The pre-season projection was run before a ball was kicked. 63 matches later, these are the clubs the model has most changed its mind about. Movement is in expected finishing position, which is measured against the rest of the division, so it reflects a changed view rather than simply games being played.
Rising
- Gent up 4.9 places, expected points 46.2 to 60.9. 19 points from 7 games. Title chance up from 0.1% to 1.4%. Relegation risk down from 5.4% to 0.0%.
- Lommel United up 3.8 places, expected points 30.5 to 38.7. 8 points from 7 games. Relegation risk down from 73.7% to 17.4%.
- Charleroi up 2.9 places, expected points 50.2 to 60.9. 18 points from 7 games. Title chance up from 0.2% to 1.5%. Relegation risk down from 1.7% to 0.0%.
- Anderlecht up 2.8 places, expected points 42.6 to 49.0. 13 points from 7 games. Relegation risk down from 13.1% to 1.3%.
- KVC Westerlo up 2.0 places, expected points 37.3 to 40.9. 10 points from 7 games. Relegation risk down from 34.4% to 11.4%.
Falling
- KV Mechelen down 3.9 places, expected points 43.6 to 33.7. 3 points from 7 games. Relegation risk up from 10.2% to 40.9%.
- Cercle Brugge down 2.7 places, expected points 43.3 to 36.1. 3 points from 7 games. Relegation risk up from 11.2% to 27.9%.
- St. Truiden down 2.6 places, expected points 52.6 to 46.9. 8 points from 7 games. Relegation risk up from 0.8% to 2.5%.
- SK Beveren down 2.3 places, expected points 49.7 to 45.1. 9 points from 7 games. Relegation risk up from 1.7% to 4.0%.
- OH Leuven down 1.8 places, expected points 39.2 to 33.4. 4 points from 7 games. Relegation risk up from 25.2% to 42.6%.
Compare with the full pre-season table, exactly as the model had it in August.
Every club, every finishing position
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 55.44 | 36.60 | 6.28 | 1.31 | 0.29 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 77.3 | ||||||||||
| Club Brugge KV | 41.44 | 46.37 | 9.00 | 2.37 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 75.7 | |||||||||
| Charleroi | 1.50 | 7.45 | 32.18 | 24.40 | 14.18 | 8.17 | 4.95 | 3.18 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 60.9 | ||
| Gent | 1.37 | 7.36 | 31.11 | 25.50 | 14.26 | 8.40 | 5.09 | 2.94 | 1.74 | 1.03 | 0.62 | 0.32 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 60.9 | |||
| Genk | 0.14 | 1.01 | 8.43 | 14.70 | 18.23 | 15.20 | 12.50 | 8.98 | 6.88 | 4.94 | 3.56 | 2.28 | 1.44 | 0.84 | 0.47 | 0.29 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 53.1 |
| Zulte Waregem | 0.05 | 0.54 | 4.42 | 9.61 | 13.76 | 14.65 | 13.18 | 11.30 | 9.33 | 7.23 | 5.45 | 4.13 | 2.71 | 1.87 | 1.00 | 0.47 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 50.5 |
| Anderlecht | 0.03 | 0.21 | 3.13 | 6.81 | 10.64 | 12.39 | 13.01 | 12.20 | 10.67 | 8.88 | 7.32 | 5.46 | 3.73 | 2.56 | 1.69 | 0.84 | 0.33 | 0.09 | 49.0 |
| St. Truiden | 0.01 | 0.16 | 1.97 | 4.86 | 8.48 | 10.34 | 11.04 | 11.69 | 11.39 | 10.10 | 8.80 | 6.97 | 5.45 | 3.83 | 2.44 | 1.57 | 0.67 | 0.22 | 46.9 |
| Standard Liege | 0.01 | 0.14 | 1.43 | 3.89 | 6.91 | 8.99 | 10.62 | 11.29 | 11.69 | 10.87 | 9.81 | 7.86 | 6.64 | 4.47 | 2.82 | 1.56 | 0.80 | 0.21 | 46.2 |
| SK Beveren | 0.01 | 0.10 | 1.03 | 2.90 | 5.05 | 7.79 | 9.77 | 10.68 | 11.37 | 11.25 | 10.72 | 8.92 | 7.04 | 5.53 | 3.84 | 2.27 | 1.28 | 0.43 | 45.1 |
| Antwerp | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.52 | 1.92 | 3.47 | 5.70 | 7.17 | 9.36 | 9.98 | 10.76 | 10.74 | 10.76 | 9.39 | 7.61 | 5.88 | 3.74 | 2.21 | 0.76 | 43.0 |
| KVC Westerlo | 0.01 | 0.32 | 0.89 | 1.95 | 3.57 | 5.00 | 6.54 | 8.32 | 9.72 | 10.91 | 11.87 | 11.56 | 9.87 | 8.12 | 6.12 | 3.52 | 1.72 | 40.9 | |
| Lommel United | 0.11 | 0.49 | 1.10 | 2.17 | 3.06 | 4.83 | 6.38 | 8.20 | 9.73 | 11.43 | 12.24 | 12.08 | 10.76 | 8.46 | 6.00 | 2.95 | 38.7 | ||
| Cercle Brugge | 0.04 | 0.22 | 0.58 | 1.18 | 2.23 | 3.12 | 4.49 | 6.05 | 7.75 | 9.60 | 11.19 | 12.65 | 13.01 | 11.52 | 9.62 | 6.73 | 36.1 | ||
| KV Mechelen | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 0.63 | 1.04 | 1.68 | 2.44 | 3.90 | 5.29 | 7.50 | 9.64 | 12.32 | 14.36 | 15.22 | 14.41 | 11.28 | 33.7 | ||
| OH Leuven | 0.05 | 0.27 | 0.43 | 0.96 | 1.50 | 2.32 | 3.60 | 5.22 | 6.91 | 9.63 | 12.16 | 14.36 | 15.86 | 15.14 | 11.59 | 33.4 | |||
| RAAL La Louvière | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 0.44 | 0.76 | 1.58 | 2.07 | 3.45 | 5.34 | 8.04 | 11.98 | 17.12 | 23.74 | 25.10 | 29.4 | |||
| Kortrijk | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.26 | 0.47 | 0.86 | 1.31 | 2.31 | 3.69 | 6.00 | 9.16 | 14.94 | 22.00 | 38.81 | 27.6 |
Each cell is the percentage of 20,000 simulated seasons in which that club finished in that position, so every row adds up to 100%. A blank cell is under 0.005%, not impossible. The xPts column is the club's average points total across those seasons. Club names link to that club's full model profile.
View the same grid as a shaded heatmap, which is easier to scan than the table above.
How it's built
The table above is where the division actually stands after 63 matches, finished off 20,000 times over. Points already won are treated as certain, and only the 243 fixtures left to play are simulated, from each club's attacking and defending strength: a blend of shots-adjusted Elo, last season's goal rates and how the club has actually played this season, the last of those counting for more the longer the season runs. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial and Dixon-Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. It knows nothing about upcoming fixture difficulty, injuries or suspensions.
_Generated from the BetSignals season simulation, 20,000 runs._