Where the model has them
The model has Charleroi finishing around 4th this season, with a 0.21% chance of the title, a 25.43% chance of the top four, and a 1.73% chance of relegation. Expected points sit at 50.2. This projection is driven by an attack strength multiplier of 1.11 (anything over 1.00 is stronger than average) and a defence multiplier of 1 (1.00 is average, lower is stronger). The attacking Elo is 1470 and the defending Elo is 1542. These numbers show a balanced side with a slight edge in defence.
In attack
Charleroi's attack strength multiplier of 1.11 suggests an above-average attacking threat. Key to this is Parfait Guiagon, who scored 9 goals in 31 appearances last season, accounting for 26% of the team's goals. Guiagon also led in shot volume with 49 shots in 31 games. Patrick Pflücke provided 8 assists in 39 appearances. Despite these contributions, the squad lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Guiagon's 9 goals being the best last season. This could be a limiting factor in their attacking output.
In defence
On the defensive side, Charleroi's multiplier of 1 indicates an average defence, but the defensive-actions leaders suggest a solid unit. Yassine Khalifi leads with 4.41 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, followed by Yassine Titraoui with 3.49 and Aiham Ousou with 3.4. Titraoui also won 56 tackles in 33 appearances. This defensive resilience, combined with an average multiplier, suggests a unit that can hold its own but might not be a standout strength.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key moves that shifted the model's numbers. The attack multiplier moved from 0.95 to 1.11, partly thanks to the arrival of Adama Bojang, who contributed 2 goals last season. On the defensive side, the multiplier improved from 0.93 to 1, with Bojang also adding 18 defensive actions. The departure of Etienne Camara, who scored 2 goals and contributed defensively, slightly offsets these gains. Overall, the window strengthened both ends of the pitch.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risk to Charleroi's projection lies in their attacking department. Despite an above-average attack multiplier, the squad lacks a proven high-volume scorer. Parfait Guiagon's 9 goals last season were the best in the squad, but this isn't enough to guarantee consistent goalscoring. If Guiagon or other key attackers fail to perform, the model's projected finish could be at risk. The defence, whilst solid, isn't a standout strength, which means Charleroi will need their attack to fire if they're to challenge for a top-four spot.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Parfait Guiagon | 9 | 0.29 | 26% |
| Assists | Patrick Pflücke | 8 | 0.21 | 18% |
| Shots | Parfait Guiagon | 49 | 1.58 | 77% |
| Tackles won | Yassine Titraoui | 56 | 1.7 | 82% |
| Fouls drawn | Parfait Guiagon | 56 | 1.81 | 77% |
| Fouls committed | Aiham Ousou | 36 | 0.97 | 65% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Yassine Khalifi | 4.41 | 19 |
| Yassine Titraoui | 3.49 | 33 |
| Aiham Ousou | 3.4 | 37 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Adama Bojang (2g), out Etienne Camara (2g)
- Defence: in Adama Bojang (18 def actions), out Etienne Camara
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._