Where the model has them
The model has OH Leuven finishing around 15th in the Jupiler Pro League this season. The chances of them winning the title are virtually non-existent at 0.01%, and the top four looks a stretch with a 1.54% probability. The relegation risk is notable at 25.20%, reflecting an expected points tally of 39.2. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, measured by the attack and defence multipliers, and their Elo ratings. The attack multiplier of 0.82 (1.00 is the league average, with higher numbers indicating a stronger attack) shows an attack below the league average. Meanwhile, the defence multiplier of 1.06 (1.00 is average, with lower numbers showing a stronger defence) suggests a defence that's slightly weaker than the average team.
In attack
OH Leuven's attack is rated below the league average with an attack multiplier of 0.82. Key players to watch include Shin Yamada, who scored 3 goals in 11 appearances last season, accounting for 27% of the team's goals. Thibaud Verlinden provided 3 assists in 25 games, contributing to 12% of the team's assists. Abdoul Karim Traoré led in shot volume with 20 shots in 24 appearances, showing up in 54% of games. The squad lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Roggerio Nyakossi and Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi both scoring 4 goals last season. This below-average attack rating reflects the team's struggle to consistently find the back of the net.
In defence
On the defensive side, OH Leuven's defence multiplier of 1.06 indicates a slightly above-average propensity to concede goals. Key defensive players include Óscar Gil, who won 65 tackles in 32 appearances, showing up in 88% of games. The defensive-actions leaders per 90 minutes are Davis Opoku with 5.48, Siebe Schrijvers with 4.29, and Óscar Gil with 4.27. Despite these efforts, the defence is seen as a soft spot, not quite strong enough to compensate for the below-average attack.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some shifts in the model's view of OH Leuven. The attack multiplier moved from 0.78 to 0.82, a slight improvement thanks to the arrival of Shin Yamada, who scored 3 goals last season. On the departure side, Sory Kaba, who scored 6 goals, left the club. Defensively, the arrival of Emmanuel Addai, who contributed 11 defensive actions last season, nudged the defence multiplier from 1.1 to 1.06, suggesting a slightly stronger backline. The departure of Takahiro Akimoto also factored into this change. These moves indicate a marginal strengthening in both attack and defence, but not enough to drastically alter the team's overall outlook.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concerns for OH Leuven revolve around their lack of a proven high-volume scorer and an attack rated below the league average. Coupled with a defence that's slightly leakier than average, these weaknesses point to a season where staying clear of the relegation zone will be the primary goal. The reliance on a few key players for both goals and defensive actions adds to the risk, especially if those players underperform or get injured.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Shin Yamada | 3 | 0.27 | 27% |
| Assists | Thibaud Verlinden | 3 | 0.12 | 12% |
| Shots | Abdoul Karim Traoré | 20 | 0.83 | 54% |
| Tackles won | Óscar Gil | 65 | 2.03 | 88% |
| Fouls drawn | Óscar Gil | 46 | 1.44 | 84% |
| Fouls committed | Siebe Schrijvers | 38 | 1.31 | 83% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Davis Opoku | 5.48 | 21 |
| Siebe Schrijvers | 4.29 | 29 |
| Óscar Gil | 4.27 | 32 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Shin Yamada (3g), out Sory Kaba (6g)
- Defence: in Emmanuel Addai (11 def actions), out Takahiro Akimoto
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._