Where the model has them
Antwerp are projected to finish around 8th in the Jupiler Pro League this season. The model gives them a 0.03% chance of winning the title, a 9.32% chance of cracking the top four, and a 6.52% chance of relegation. They're tipped for 45.4 expected points. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in their multipliers and Elo ratings. Their attack strength multiplier of 0.9 (1.00 is the league average, higher is stronger) and their defence multiplier of 0.94 (1.00 is average, lower means a stronger defence) paint a picture of a side that's slightly below par in both departments. Their attacking Elo of 1446 and defending Elo of 1541 further underline this.
In attack
Antwerp's attack is rated below the league average, with a strength multiplier of 0.9. Their top scorer last season was Christopher Scott with 6 goals, followed by Thibo Somers and Anthony Valencia, each with 4. Valencia, who scored 4 in 22 appearances, is the most reliable goal threat, scoring in 18% of games. Daam Foulon provided 4 assists in 31 appearances, contributing in 13% of games. Farouck Adekami led in shot volume with 24 in 20 appearances, which is 65% of games. Despite these contributors, the attack lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Scott's 6 goals being the highest tally last season.
In defence
Defensively, Antwerp are a bit stronger, with a defence multiplier of 0.94. Their defensive-actions leaders include Semm Renders with 4.05 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Daam Foulon with 3.97, and Yuto Tsunashima with 3.96. Thibo Somers won 65 tackles in 30 appearances, which is 83% of games. This suggests a solid, if unspectacular, defensive unit.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some tweaks to the squad that nudged the model's numbers. The attack multiplier moved from 0.85 to 0.9, and the defence from 0.91 to 0.94. Rein Van Helden was a key arrival, contributing 2 goals and 75 defensive actions last season. The notable departure was Vincent Janssen, who scored 8 goals last term. These changes suggest a slight strengthening in both attack and defence, but nothing transformative.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concern for Antwerp is their attack, which is rated below the league average and lacks a proven high-volume scorer. This, combined with a defence that's only slightly above average, underpins the projection of an 8th place finish. The risk is that without a significant improvement in attacking output, they could struggle to climb the table.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Anthony Valencia | 4 | 0.18 | 18% |
| Assists | Daam Foulon | 4 | 0.13 | 13% |
| Shots | Farouck Adekami | 24 | 1.2 | 65% |
| Tackles won | Thibo Somers | 65 | 2.17 | 83% |
| Fouls drawn | Farouck Adekami | 41 | 2.05 | 80% |
| Fouls committed | Glenn Bijl | 15 | 1.36 | 82% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Semm Renders | 4.05 | 12 |
| Daam Foulon | 3.97 | 31 |
| Yuto Tsunashima | 3.96 | 33 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Rein Van Helden (2g), out Vincent Janssen (8g)
- Defence: in Rein Van Helden (75 def actions), out Zeno Van Den Bosch
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._