Lommel United: Jupiler Pro League 2026-27 model profile
The model has Lommel United finishing around 18th, with a 0.00% chance of winning the title, a 0.05% chance of breaking into the top four, and a 73.70% likelihood of relegation. The expected points tally is 30.5. This projection is driven by the attack and defence strength multipliers, along with the Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 0.9 (1.00 is the league average, higher means a stronger attack), whilst the defence multiplier is 1.54 (1.00 is average, lower means a stronger defence). The attacking Elo is 1491, and the defending Elo is 1494, both influenced by their promotion and the cross-league Elo.
In attack, Lommel United is rated below the league average with an attack strength multiplier of 0.9. Juho Talvitie is the standout player here, contributing 3 goals and 2 assists in 27 appearances last season. He also had 22 shots, making up 52% of the team's total. Despite his efforts, the squad lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Zalán Vancsa's 4 goals last season being the best the team has to offer. Lucas Schoofs (3g/3a) and Juho Talvitie (3g/2a) are the other notable contributors, but overall, the attack is underwhelming.
Defensively, Lommel United is slightly above average but still leakier than most, with a defence multiplier of 1.54. Juho Talvitie again stands out, leading in defensive actions with 36 across the season. Sverre Nypan is another key player, averaging 2.62 defensive actions per 90 minutes, closely followed by Talvitie with 2.32 per 90. Whilst the defence shows some promise, it's not a clear strength, and the team will need to improve if they are to avoid the drop.
The transfer window saw minor tweaks rather than major overhauls. Juho Talvitie arrived, boosting both the attack (3 goals last season) and defence (36 defensive actions). Robin van Duiven left the attack with no goals last season, and Lautaro López departed from the defence. These changes nudged the attack multiplier from 0.9 to 0.9 and the defence from 1.53 to 1.54, indicating minimal impact on the overall model projection.
The main weaknesses the model sees are the lack of a proven high-volume scorer, an attack rated below the league average, and a defence that, whilst not terrible, is still leakier than the average team. Being newly promoted means much of the squad is unproven at this level, adding to the risk of relegation. These factors combined drive the model's pessimistic outlook for Lommel United this season.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Juho Talvitie | 3 | 0.11 | 11% |
| Assists | Juho Talvitie | 2 | 0.07 | 7% |
| Shots | Juho Talvitie | 22 | 0.81 | 52% |
| Tackles won | Juho Talvitie | 27 | 1 | 56% |
| Fouls drawn | Juho Talvitie | 22 | 0.81 | 41% |
| Fouls committed | Juho Talvitie | 15 | 0.56 | 41% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Sverre Nypan | 2.62 | 20 |
| Juho Talvitie | 2.32 | 27 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Juho Talvitie (3g), out Robin van Duiven (0g)
- Defence: in Juho Talvitie (36 def actions), out Lautaro López
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._