Where the model has them
The model has Cercle Brugge finishing around 11th this season. It's a tight call, with a 0.03% chance of the title, 5.76% for the top four, and 11.24% risk of relegation. Expected points sit at 43.3. This position is driven by their attack and defence strength, plus their Elo ratings. The attack multiplier is 1.02, meaning they're just above average in attack. Their defence multiplier of 1.14 shows they're a bit weaker than average at the back. Their attacking Elo is 1505, whilst their defending Elo is 1462.
In attack
Cercle Brugge's attack is nothing special. Their attack strength multiplier of 1.02 shows they're only slightly above the league average. Steve Ngoura led last season with 5 goals in 32 appearances, but that's hardly prolific. He also had the most shots with 46. Gary Magnee chipped in with 7 assists, the most in the squad. Ngoura and Magnee are key, but they're not exactly setting the league alight. With no proven high-volume scorer, it's hard to see them lighting up the top of the table.
In defence
Defensively, they're a bit of a soft spot. The defence multiplier of 1.14 indicates they're leakier than the average team. Erick Nunes leads the way with 6.26 defensive actions per 90 minutes, followed by Makaya Ibrahima Diaby with 4.88 and Lawrence Agyekum with 4.66. Agyekum also won 71 tackles in 27 appearances. These numbers show they're solid but not spectacular at the back. They'll need to tighten up if they're to avoid the drop.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some changes, but nothing earth-shattering. The attack multiplier dropped from 1.08 to 1.02, whilst the defence multiplier improved from 1.22 to 1.14. Geoffrey Kondo arrived and brings a bit of dual threat, with 2 goals and 82 defensive actions last season. But the departure of Edan Diop, who scored 7 goals last term, is a net loss in attack. Flávio Nazinho leaving didn't help the defence either. Overall, the window saw a slight improvement at the back but a hit to their attacking output.
Weaknesses and risks
The model sees a few clear weaknesses. There's no proven high-volume scorer in the squad. Their defence, whilst solid, is rated below average. And they lost some net attacking output in the transfer window. These factors combine to make relegation a real risk, with an 11.24% chance according to the model. They'll need to improve in both boxes if they're to avoid a drop this season.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Steve Ngoura | 5 | 0.16 | 16% |
| Assists | Gary Magnee | 7 | 0.22 | 22% |
| Shots | Steve Ngoura | 46 | 1.44 | 75% |
| Tackles won | Lawrence Agyekum | 71 | 2.63 | 93% |
| Fouls drawn | Lawrence Agyekum | 42 | 1.56 | 82% |
| Fouls committed | Hannes Van Der Bruggen | 37 | 1.23 | 83% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Erick Nunes | 6.26 | 15 |
| Makaya Ibrahima Diaby | 4.88 | 24 |
| Lawrence Agyekum | 4.66 | 27 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Geoffrey Kondo (2g), out Edan Diop (7g)
- Defence: in Geoffrey Kondo (82 def actions), out Flávio Nazinho
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._