Where the model has them
Kortrijk are projected to finish around 18th this season, with a 0.00% chance of winning the title, a 0.25% chance of breaking into the top four, and a 54.26% chance of relegation. The model expects them to collect around 34.0 points. This outlook is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in the multipliers and Elo ratings. Their attack multiplier of 0.86 (league average is 1.00) shows they're below average in attack, whilst their defence multiplier of 1.32 (lower is better) indicates a defence that's leakier than most. Their attacking Elo of 1435 and defending Elo of 1441 also lean on cross-league Elo, given their promotion status.
In attack
Kortrijk's attack is rated below the league average, with an attack strength multiplier of 0.86. The key attacking player is Goduine Koyalipou, who managed 3 goals in 23 appearances last season, contributing to 13% of the team's goals. He also provided 1 assist and took 23 shots, accounting for 61% of the team's shot volume. His contribution is vital, yet it's clear the attack lacks a high-volume scorer. The top scorers in the squad are Koyalipou with 3 goals and 1 assist, and Shandre Campbell with 1 goal.
In defence
Defensively, Kortrijk are rated slightly worse than average with a defence multiplier of 1.32. The defensive-actions leaders are Shandre Campbell, with 3.67 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, and Nayel Mehssatou, with 1.82 per 90. Koyalipou also chips in with 0.99 defensive actions per 90. Mehssatou, in particular, won 15 tackles in 28 appearances last season, contributing to 46% of the team's tackles won. Whilst these numbers show some solidity, the defence multiplier suggests there are vulnerabilities.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minimal impact on Kortrijk's model numbers. The attack multiplier stayed at 0.86, and the defence multiplier remained at 1.32. The key attacking arrival was Goduine Koyalipou, who scored 3 goals last season, and defensively, Nayel Mehssatou came in, contributing 22 defensive actions. These additions didn't shift the multipliers, indicating the model views the new signings as maintaining the status quo rather than significantly altering the team's performance metrics.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concerns for Kortrijk revolve around their lack of a proven high-volume scorer, an attack rated below the league average, and a defence that, whilst having some solid performers, is still leakier than the average team. Being newly promoted, much of the squad is unproven at this level, adding to the risks. These factors combined drive the projection of a tough season ahead, with a high probability of relegation.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Goduine Koyalipou | 3 | 0.13 | 13% |
| Assists | Goduine Koyalipou | 1 | 0.04 | 4% |
| Shots | Goduine Koyalipou | 23 | 1 | 61% |
| Tackles won | Nayel Mehssatou | 15 | 0.54 | 46% |
| Fouls drawn | Nayel Mehssatou | 21 | 0.75 | 43% |
| Fouls committed | Nayel Mehssatou | 12 | 0.43 | 32% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Shandre Campbell | 3.67 | 14 |
| Nayel Mehssatou | 1.82 | 28 |
| Goduine Koyalipou | 0.99 | 23 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Goduine Koyalipou (3g), out -
- Defence: in Nayel Mehssatou (22 def actions), out -
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._