Where the model has them
The model has Anderlecht finishing around 11th place this season, with a 0.01% chance of winning the title, 4.61% chance of making the top four, and a 13.05% chance of relegation. The expected points tally is 42.6. This projection is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 0.95 (league average is 1.00, higher is better) and their defence multiplier of 1.08 (league average is 1.00, lower is better). Their attacking Elo is 1522 and their defending Elo is 1521, both close but not standout.
In attack
Anderlecht's attack is rated below the league average, reflected in their 0.95 attack strength multiplier. Last season, Adriano Bertaccini led the way with 6 goals in 35 appearances, contributing 17% of their goals. Ali Maamar provided 4 assists in 26 games, accounting for 15% of their assists. Bertaccini also led in shot volume with 51 shots in 35 appearances, showing up in 86% of games. The top scorers in the squad are Bertaccini with 6 goals and 2 assists, Luis Vázquez with 5 goals and 1 assist, and Tristan Degreef with 3 goals and 2 assists. The absence of a proven high-volume scorer and the net attacking output lost with Thorgan Hazard's departure (11 goals last season) are clear weaknesses.
In defence
Defensively, Anderlecht is rated slightly worse than average with a defence multiplier of 1.08. Moussa N'Diaye leads in defensive actions with 5.28 per 90 minutes, followed by Enric Llansana with 4.71 and Nathan-Dylan Saliba with 4.39. Nathan-Dylan Saliba won 78 tackles in 35 appearances, showing up in 91% of games. Whilst these numbers suggest some solid individual performers, the overall defence multiplier indicates this area remains a soft spot.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key changes. Offensively, the arrival of Luis Vázquez (5 goals last season) couldn't offset the loss of Thorgan Hazard (11 goals), resulting in the attack multiplier dropping from 1.11 to 0.95. Defensively, Moussa N'Diaye (123 defensive actions) joined, nudging the defence multiplier slightly from 1.07 to 1.08. Nathan De Cat's departure didn’t significantly impact the defensive metrics. Overall, the window saw a net loss in attacking potency.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concerns for Anderlecht revolve around their below-average attack and slightly-above-average defence. The lack of a high-volume scorer and the reduction in attacking output post-Hazard's departure are significant risks. Their defensive solidity, whilst not terrible, isn't enough to compensate for the attacking limitations. These factors combined drive the model's projection of a mid-table finish around 11th place.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Adriano Bertaccini | 6 | 0.17 | 17% |
| Assists | Ali Maamar | 4 | 0.15 | 15% |
| Shots | Adriano Bertaccini | 51 | 1.46 | 86% |
| Tackles won | Nathan-Dylan Saliba | 78 | 2.23 | 91% |
| Fouls drawn | Moussa N'Diaye | 45 | 1.45 | 65% |
| Fouls committed | Enric Llansana | 59 | 1.9 | 87% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Moussa N'Diaye | 5.28 | 31 |
| Enric Llansana | 4.71 | 31 |
| Nathan-Dylan Saliba | 4.39 | 35 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Luis Vázquez (5g), out Thorgan Hazard (11g)
- Defence: in Moussa N'Diaye (123 def actions), out Nathan De Cat
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._