Where the model has them
Zulte Waregem is projected to finish around 6th in the 2026-27 Jupiler Pro League. The model gives them a 0.08% chance of winning the title, a 14.32% chance of finishing in the top four, and a 4.33% chance of relegation. The expected points total is 47.2. This projection is driven by their attack and defence strength multipliers and their Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier of 1.09 (1.00 is the league average) and the defence multiplier of 1.08 (lower is better) indicate a balanced but not exceptional team. Their attacking Elo is 1506 and their defending Elo is 1486, suggesting a slight edge in attack but nothing overwhelming.
In attack
The attack is slightly above average, with a strength multiplier of 1.09. Marley Aké was the top scorer last season with 8 goals in 30 appearances, contributing 27% of the team's goals. Anosike Ementa led in assists with 9 in 33 games, accounting for 21% of the team's assists. Aké also had the highest shot volume with 36 shots in 30 appearances. Despite these contributions, the squad lacks a proven high-volume scorer, with Aké's 8 goals being the best in the team. This suggests the attack, whilst competent, isn't stacked with prolific talent.
In defence
Defensively, Zulte Waregem is rated slightly below average with a defence multiplier of 1.08. The defensive-actions leaders per 90 minutes are Wilguens Paugain with 4.28, Malick Mbaye with 4.1, and Laurent Lemoine with 3.93. Dirk Asare won 22 tackles in just 11 appearances, showcasing his impact when on the field. However, the defence is seen as a soft spot, with the multiplier indicating it concedes more goals than the league average. This leakiness could be a significant factor in their projected mid-table finish.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minor adjustments to the squad. The attack multiplier remained static at 1.09, whilst the defence improved slightly to 1.08 from 1.12. Malick Mbaye arrived, contributing 1 goal last season and 17 defensive actions, providing both attacking and defensive support. The notable departure was Jeppe Erenbjerg, who scored 13 goals last season, a significant loss in attacking potency. Defensively, the loss of Tochukwu Nnadi was offset by Mbaye's arrival. Overall, the changes were incremental rather than transformative.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to Zulte Waregem's projection lie in their lack of a high-volume scorer and a defence that is slightly below average. These factors combined suggest they'll struggle to challenge for the top spots but should comfortably avoid relegation. The reliance on a few key players for both goals and defensive actions means injuries or form dips could significantly impact their season.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Marley Aké | 8 | 0.27 | 27% |
| Assists | Anosike Ementa | 9 | 0.27 | 21% |
| Shots | Marley Aké | 36 | 1.2 | 77% |
| Tackles won | Dirk Asare | 22 | 2 | 91% |
| Fouls drawn | Anosike Ementa | 84 | 2.55 | 91% |
| Fouls committed | Dirk Asare | 15 | 1.36 | 82% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Wilguens Paugain | 4.28 | 23 |
| Malick Mbaye | 4.1 | 11 |
| Laurent Lemoine | 3.93 | 21 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Malick Mbaye (1g), out Jeppe Erenbjerg (13g)
- Defence: in Malick Mbaye (17 def actions), out Tochukwu Nnadi
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._