The model makes Club Brugge KV the title favourite, first in 64.1% of 20,000 simulated seasons, ahead of Union St. Gilloise on 33.4% and Genk on 1.4%. On expected points that is Club Brugge KV 73.9, Union St. Gilloise 70.2, Genk 55.9. Three clubs finish in the top four more often than not: Club Brugge KV 99.5%, Union St. Gilloise 98.2%, Genk 55.5%.
At the other end, Lommel United carries the highest relegation risk at 73.7%, then Kortrijk on 54.3% and RAAL La Louvière on 50.0%. The bottom club averages 30.5 points to Club Brugge KV's 73.9.
Right, so here's what this simulation is about: a distribution of outcomes, not a single answer. It's like a map of where a club might land, not a GPS telling you exactly where you'll finish. It's useful for seeing how wide a club's range is. Is Club A always top four, or do they swing between fifth and tenth? That's what you get from this. But remember, it's blind to everything a season actually throws at it: injuries, form, fixture pile-ups, you name it. It's a pre-season snapshot, a starting point. Use it to frame your thinking, not to nail your colours to the mast. It's a tool, not a gospel.
Every club, every finishing position
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | 64.08 | 30.21 | 4.30 | 0.95 | 0.30 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 73.9 | |||||||||
| Union St. Gilloise | 33.42 | 52.95 | 9.20 | 2.67 | 0.95 | 0.42 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 70.2 | |||||||
| Genk | 1.37 | 7.24 | 27.97 | 18.90 | 12.90 | 8.89 | 6.60 | 4.86 | 3.68 | 2.49 | 1.90 | 1.26 | 0.85 | 0.55 | 0.34 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 55.9 | |
| St. Truiden | 0.47 | 3.26 | 16.33 | 16.33 | 13.87 | 11.32 | 9.11 | 7.49 | 5.53 | 4.81 | 3.86 | 2.67 | 1.93 | 1.44 | 0.81 | 0.53 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 52.6 |
| Charleroi | 0.22 | 1.90 | 10.74 | 12.58 | 11.98 | 11.19 | 10.12 | 8.71 | 7.61 | 6.14 | 5.40 | 4.20 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 0.99 | 0.53 | 0.21 | 50.2 |
| SK Beveren | 0.19 | 1.57 | 9.13 | 11.69 | 11.81 | 11.43 | 10.31 | 9.22 | 7.63 | 6.82 | 5.78 | 4.76 | 3.57 | 2.46 | 1.93 | 0.95 | 0.54 | 0.21 | 49.7 |
| Zulte Waregem | 0.08 | 0.81 | 5.43 | 7.99 | 9.12 | 9.53 | 9.32 | 9.31 | 8.63 | 8.04 | 7.21 | 6.75 | 5.29 | 4.75 | 3.40 | 2.27 | 1.46 | 0.59 | 47.2 |
| Gent | 0.06 | 0.63 | 4.23 | 6.22 | 7.85 | 8.83 | 8.91 | 8.98 | 9.04 | 8.62 | 8.49 | 7.16 | 6.07 | 5.20 | 4.30 | 2.92 | 1.69 | 0.78 | 46.2 |
| Antwerp | 0.03 | 0.40 | 3.36 | 5.51 | 6.87 | 7.89 | 8.42 | 8.97 | 8.96 | 8.88 | 8.19 | 8.03 | 7.20 | 5.97 | 4.78 | 3.38 | 2.10 | 1.04 | 45.4 |
| Standard Liege | 0.03 | 0.35 | 2.82 | 5.08 | 6.31 | 7.76 | 8.22 | 8.91 | 9.12 | 8.58 | 8.49 | 8.59 | 6.99 | 6.47 | 5.02 | 3.91 | 2.26 | 1.09 | 45.0 |
| KV Mechelen | 0.01 | 0.18 | 1.96 | 3.72 | 5.02 | 6.09 | 7.16 | 7.72 | 8.22 | 9.22 | 8.82 | 9.01 | 8.41 | 7.90 | 6.35 | 5.00 | 3.48 | 1.74 | 43.6 |
| Cercle Brugge | 0.03 | 0.24 | 2.02 | 3.48 | 4.88 | 5.68 | 6.91 | 7.50 | 8.56 | 8.36 | 8.94 | 8.52 | 8.58 | 7.69 | 7.40 | 5.52 | 3.69 | 2.03 | 43.3 |
| Anderlecht | 0.01 | 0.19 | 1.53 | 2.89 | 4.28 | 5.14 | 6.50 | 7.12 | 7.96 | 8.49 | 9.07 | 8.93 | 9.01 | 8.40 | 7.43 | 6.07 | 4.55 | 2.44 | 42.6 |
| OH Leuven | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.52 | 0.97 | 1.79 | 2.46 | 3.60 | 4.44 | 5.73 | 6.87 | 7.90 | 8.87 | 10.13 | 10.51 | 10.96 | 10.42 | 9.14 | 5.65 | 39.2 |
| KVC Westerlo | 0.03 | 0.28 | 0.56 | 1.16 | 1.58 | 2.21 | 3.00 | 4.03 | 5.40 | 6.34 | 7.85 | 9.51 | 10.94 | 12.70 | 13.03 | 12.32 | 9.08 | 37.3 | |
| RAAL La Louvière | 0.12 | 0.23 | 0.43 | 0.77 | 1.03 | 1.62 | 2.42 | 3.19 | 4.18 | 5.46 | 7.70 | 10.10 | 12.73 | 15.71 | 17.77 | 16.51 | 34.6 | ||
| Kortrijk | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0.70 | 0.94 | 1.48 | 2.02 | 2.88 | 3.65 | 5.19 | 7.12 | 9.31 | 11.82 | 15.48 | 19.23 | 19.55 | 34.0 | |
| Lommel United | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.41 | 0.57 | 0.80 | 1.19 | 1.76 | 2.74 | 4.11 | 5.90 | 8.44 | 13.69 | 20.99 | 39.02 | 30.5 |
Each cell is the percentage of 20,000 simulated seasons in which that club finished in that position, so every row adds up to 100%. A blank cell is under 0.005%, not impossible. The xPts column is the club's average points total across those seasons. Club names link to that club's full model profile.
View the same grid as a shaded heatmap, which is easier to scan than the table above.
How it's built
Every one of the 306 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial and Dixon-Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Strengths are frozen at pre-season, so this is a start-of-season expectation, not a mid-season read.
_Generated from the BetSignals season simulation, 20,000 runs._