The model makes Castellón the title favourite, first in 25.0% of 20,000 simulated seasons, ahead of Eibar on 22.7% and Mallorca on 19.5%. On expected points that is Castellón 77.0, Eibar 76.6, Mallorca 75.6. Three clubs finish in the top four more often than not: Castellón 70.4%, Eibar 68.7%, Mallorca 65.6%.
At the other end, AD Ceuta FC carries the highest relegation risk at 71.9%, then Cadiz on 66.8% and Eldense on 43.3%. The bottom club averages 36.3 points to Castellón's 77.0.
This simulation is your chance to see the Segunda División season played out 20,000 times, keeping the points won so far and finishing off the remaining fixtures with the clubs' current attacking and defending strength. It's not a crystal ball, but it's a solid way to get a feel for the range of outcomes for each club. Think of it as a map of possibilities, useful for understanding the potential ups and downs each side might face. It doesn't know about upcoming fixtures, injuries, or suspensions, so it's blind to the chaos a real season throws at you. But for a data-led look at where clubs might land, it's invaluable. Use it to inform your selections, not to make them for you.
Every club, every finishing position
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 25.01 | 18.93 | 14.90 | 11.58 | 9.06 | 6.84 | 4.90 | 3.40 | 2.09 | 1.26 | 0.92 | 0.50 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 77.0 | ||||
| Eibar | 22.71 | 18.75 | 15.19 | 12.08 | 9.69 | 7.11 | 4.83 | 3.38 | 2.30 | 1.68 | 1.05 | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 76.6 | ||||
| Mallorca | 19.51 | 17.63 | 15.37 | 13.11 | 9.59 | 7.65 | 5.34 | 4.11 | 2.71 | 1.83 | 1.17 | 0.91 | 0.49 | 0.28 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 75.6 | |||
| Girona | 10.03 | 12.29 | 12.92 | 12.65 | 11.79 | 10.29 | 7.89 | 6.16 | 5.29 | 3.56 | 2.68 | 1.63 | 1.20 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 71.9 | |
| Almeria | 10.22 | 11.57 | 12.43 | 12.32 | 11.45 | 9.70 | 8.59 | 6.70 | 5.32 | 3.74 | 2.88 | 2.03 | 1.11 | 0.83 | 0.47 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 71.6 | ||
| Las Palmas | 7.92 | 10.22 | 11.84 | 12.15 | 12.21 | 10.81 | 9.34 | 7.57 | 5.48 | 4.15 | 3.02 | 1.88 | 1.42 | 0.82 | 0.53 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 71.0 | ||
| Burgos | 1.05 | 2.32 | 3.58 | 5.24 | 6.95 | 8.90 | 10.40 | 10.93 | 10.18 | 9.69 | 8.19 | 6.46 | 5.00 | 3.86 | 2.65 | 1.95 | 1.20 | 0.66 | 0.49 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 63.3 |
| Real Sociedad II | 1.11 | 2.38 | 3.65 | 5.12 | 6.64 | 8.22 | 9.03 | 9.68 | 9.24 | 9.01 | 7.82 | 7.18 | 6.07 | 4.47 | 3.36 | 2.57 | 1.81 | 1.30 | 0.69 | 0.41 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 62.3 |
| Sporting Gijon | 0.81 | 1.93 | 3.01 | 4.41 | 5.85 | 7.32 | 8.56 | 9.47 | 9.39 | 9.30 | 8.82 | 7.66 | 6.69 | 5.03 | 3.75 | 2.94 | 2.09 | 1.36 | 0.81 | 0.54 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 61.6 |
| Sabadell | 0.76 | 1.69 | 2.62 | 4.08 | 5.48 | 6.60 | 8.37 | 9.43 | 9.76 | 9.29 | 8.93 | 7.99 | 6.58 | 5.42 | 4.33 | 3.28 | 2.33 | 1.41 | 0.94 | 0.46 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 61.2 |
| Oviedo | 0.56 | 1.44 | 2.57 | 3.83 | 5.39 | 6.70 | 7.97 | 9.14 | 9.76 | 9.50 | 9.24 | 7.81 | 6.96 | 5.62 | 4.10 | 3.37 | 2.31 | 1.81 | 0.92 | 0.61 | 0.31 | 0.08 | 60.7 |
| Granada CF | 0.19 | 0.41 | 0.91 | 1.49 | 2.33 | 3.51 | 5.12 | 5.76 | 7.43 | 8.35 | 8.94 | 9.16 | 9.27 | 8.62 | 7.54 | 6.24 | 5.43 | 3.74 | 2.54 | 1.74 | 0.88 | 0.39 | 56.3 |
| Leganes | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.66 | 1.30 | 2.04 | 2.89 | 3.82 | 5.32 | 6.98 | 7.79 | 9.35 | 9.80 | 10.11 | 9.64 | 8.37 | 6.79 | 5.77 | 4.11 | 2.77 | 1.49 | 0.49 | 53.8 |
| Tenerife | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.65 | 1.26 | 1.84 | 2.82 | 3.96 | 5.26 | 6.21 | 8.01 | 9.09 | 9.30 | 9.98 | 9.95 | 8.72 | 7.72 | 6.16 | 4.71 | 2.60 | 1.09 | 51.7 |
| Celta de Vigo II | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.46 | 1.00 | 1.27 | 1.92 | 3.19 | 3.86 | 4.81 | 6.40 | 7.23 | 8.56 | 9.51 | 9.48 | 9.98 | 9.39 | 8.45 | 6.72 | 4.93 | 2.30 | 49.5 |
| FC Andorra | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.37 | 0.76 | 1.31 | 1.87 | 2.78 | 3.89 | 5.29 | 6.24 | 7.48 | 8.67 | 9.77 | 9.63 | 10.00 | 9.56 | 8.27 | 6.39 | 4.72 | 2.54 | 49.2 |
| Cordoba | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.46 | 0.77 | 1.26 | 1.89 | 2.72 | 3.91 | 4.84 | 5.88 | 7.12 | 7.82 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 9.77 | 9.69 | 8.74 | 7.14 | 5.46 | 3.14 | 49.0 |
| Albacete | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 0.63 | 0.98 | 1.67 | 2.41 | 3.52 | 4.46 | 5.51 | 7.08 | 8.38 | 9.74 | 10.74 | 11.08 | 10.59 | 9.57 | 7.85 | 5.13 | 46.3 | |
| Valladolid | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.52 | 0.73 | 1.15 | 1.90 | 2.78 | 3.72 | 5.53 | 6.56 | 8.40 | 9.92 | 11.92 | 13.88 | 13.46 | 11.87 | 7.23 | 43.9 | ||
| Eldense | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 1.27 | 1.92 | 2.74 | 4.12 | 5.15 | 6.84 | 8.76 | 10.81 | 13.18 | 15.70 | 15.36 | 12.21 | 42.0 | ||
| Cadiz | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 0.74 | 1.06 | 1.63 | 2.43 | 3.41 | 5.49 | 7.14 | 10.45 | 15.53 | 21.87 | 29.38 | 37.3 | |||
| AD Ceuta FC | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.49 | 0.83 | 1.26 | 1.81 | 3.05 | 4.08 | 6.33 | 9.67 | 14.05 | 21.93 | 35.88 | 36.3 |
Each cell is the percentage of 20,000 simulated seasons in which that club finished in that position, so every row adds up to 100%. A blank cell is under 0.005%, not impossible. The xPts column is the club's average points total across those seasons.
View the same grid as a shaded heatmap, which is easier to scan than the table above.
How it's built
The table above is where the division actually stands after 66 matches, finished off 20,000 times over. Points already won are treated as certain, and only the 396 fixtures left to play are simulated, from each club's attacking and defending strength: a blend of shots-adjusted Elo, last season's goal rates and how the club has actually played this season, the last of those counting for more the longer the season runs. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial and Dixon-Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. It knows nothing about upcoming fixture difficulty, injuries or suspensions.
_Generated from the BetSignals season simulation, 20,000 runs._