Monte Carlo · after matchweek 6 · 20,000 simulated seasons
Where every club finishes: Segunda División 2026–27
Published
66 of 462 matches played (through matchweek 6). Points already won are carried in as certain; only the 396 remaining fixtures are simulated.
Each row is a club, ordered by expected finish. Each column is a final league position. The cell shading is how often that club finished in that spot across 20,000 simulations, so every row adds up to 100%. Read across a row to see a club's whole range of outcomes.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | Pts | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Castellón | 25.01 | 18.93 | 14.90 | 11.58 | 9.06 | 6.84 | 4.90 | 3.40 | 2.09 | 1.26 | 0.92 | 0.50 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 16 | 77.0 | ||||
| 2Eibar | 22.71 | 18.75 | 15.19 | 12.08 | 9.69 | 7.11 | 4.83 | 3.38 | 2.30 | 1.68 | 1.05 | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 15 | 76.6 | ||||
| 3Mallorca | 19.51 | 17.63 | 15.37 | 13.11 | 9.59 | 7.65 | 5.34 | 4.11 | 2.71 | 1.83 | 1.17 | 0.91 | 0.49 | 0.28 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 13 | 75.6 | |||
| 4Girona | 10.03 | 12.29 | 12.92 | 12.65 | 11.79 | 10.29 | 7.89 | 6.16 | 5.29 | 3.56 | 2.68 | 1.63 | 1.20 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 10 | 71.9 | |
| 5Almeria | 10.22 | 11.57 | 12.43 | 12.32 | 11.45 | 9.70 | 8.59 | 6.70 | 5.32 | 3.74 | 2.88 | 2.03 | 1.11 | 0.83 | 0.47 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 12 | 71.6 | ||
| 6Las Palmas | 7.92 | 10.22 | 11.84 | 12.15 | 12.21 | 10.81 | 9.34 | 7.57 | 5.48 | 4.15 | 3.02 | 1.88 | 1.42 | 0.82 | 0.53 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 10 | 71.0 | ||
| 7Burgos | 1.05 | 2.32 | 3.58 | 5.24 | 6.95 | 8.90 | 10.40 | 10.93 | 10.18 | 9.69 | 8.19 | 6.46 | 5.00 | 3.86 | 2.65 | 1.95 | 1.20 | 0.66 | 0.49 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 11 | 63.3 |
| 8Real Sociedad II | 1.11 | 2.38 | 3.65 | 5.12 | 6.64 | 8.22 | 9.03 | 9.68 | 9.24 | 9.01 | 7.82 | 7.18 | 6.07 | 4.47 | 3.36 | 2.57 | 1.81 | 1.30 | 0.69 | 0.41 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 8 | 62.3 |
| 9Sporting Gijon | 0.81 | 1.93 | 3.01 | 4.41 | 5.85 | 7.32 | 8.56 | 9.47 | 9.39 | 9.30 | 8.82 | 7.66 | 6.69 | 5.03 | 3.75 | 2.94 | 2.09 | 1.36 | 0.81 | 0.54 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 10 | 61.6 |
| 10Sabadell | 0.76 | 1.69 | 2.62 | 4.08 | 5.48 | 6.60 | 8.37 | 9.43 | 9.76 | 9.29 | 8.93 | 7.99 | 6.58 | 5.42 | 4.33 | 3.28 | 2.33 | 1.41 | 0.94 | 0.46 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 11 | 61.2 |
| 11Oviedo | 0.56 | 1.44 | 2.57 | 3.83 | 5.39 | 6.70 | 7.97 | 9.14 | 9.76 | 9.50 | 9.24 | 7.81 | 6.96 | 5.62 | 4.10 | 3.37 | 2.31 | 1.81 | 0.92 | 0.61 | 0.31 | 0.08 | 8 | 60.7 |
| 12Granada CF | 0.19 | 0.41 | 0.91 | 1.49 | 2.33 | 3.51 | 5.12 | 5.76 | 7.43 | 8.35 | 8.94 | 9.16 | 9.27 | 8.62 | 7.54 | 6.24 | 5.43 | 3.74 | 2.54 | 1.74 | 0.88 | 0.39 | 8 | 56.3 |
| 13Leganes | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.66 | 1.30 | 2.04 | 2.89 | 3.82 | 5.32 | 6.98 | 7.79 | 9.35 | 9.80 | 10.11 | 9.64 | 8.37 | 6.79 | 5.77 | 4.11 | 2.77 | 1.49 | 0.49 | 11 | 53.8 |
| 14Tenerife | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.65 | 1.26 | 1.84 | 2.82 | 3.96 | 5.26 | 6.21 | 8.01 | 9.09 | 9.30 | 9.98 | 9.95 | 8.72 | 7.72 | 6.16 | 4.71 | 2.60 | 1.09 | 10 | 51.7 |
| 15Celta de Vigo II | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.46 | 1.00 | 1.27 | 1.92 | 3.19 | 3.86 | 4.81 | 6.40 | 7.23 | 8.56 | 9.51 | 9.48 | 9.98 | 9.39 | 8.45 | 6.72 | 4.93 | 2.30 | 7 | 49.5 |
| 16FC Andorra | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.37 | 0.76 | 1.31 | 1.87 | 2.78 | 3.89 | 5.29 | 6.24 | 7.48 | 8.67 | 9.77 | 9.63 | 10.00 | 9.56 | 8.27 | 6.39 | 4.72 | 2.54 | 3 | 49.2 |
| 17Cordoba | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.46 | 0.77 | 1.26 | 1.89 | 2.72 | 3.91 | 4.84 | 5.88 | 7.12 | 7.82 | 9.24 | 9.73 | 9.77 | 9.69 | 8.74 | 7.14 | 5.46 | 3.14 | 6 | 49.0 |
| 18Albacete | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 0.63 | 0.98 | 1.67 | 2.41 | 3.52 | 4.46 | 5.51 | 7.08 | 8.38 | 9.74 | 10.74 | 11.08 | 10.59 | 9.57 | 7.85 | 5.13 | 1 | 46.3 | |
| 19Valladolid | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.52 | 0.73 | 1.15 | 1.90 | 2.78 | 3.72 | 5.53 | 6.56 | 8.40 | 9.92 | 11.92 | 13.88 | 13.46 | 11.87 | 7.23 | 5 | 43.9 | ||
| 20Eldense | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 1.27 | 1.92 | 2.74 | 4.12 | 5.15 | 6.84 | 8.76 | 10.81 | 13.18 | 15.70 | 15.36 | 12.21 | 5 | 42.0 | ||
| 21Cadiz | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 0.74 | 1.06 | 1.63 | 2.43 | 3.41 | 5.49 | 7.14 | 10.45 | 15.53 | 21.87 | 29.38 | 3 | 37.3 | |||
| 22AD Ceuta FC | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.49 | 0.83 | 1.26 | 1.81 | 3.05 | 4.08 | 6.33 | 9.67 | 14.05 | 21.93 | 35.88 | 1 | 36.3 |
How it's built. Every one of the 396 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial + Dixon–Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Those are the fixtures still to be played: points already won are carried in as certain rather than re-simulated. Strengths blend shots-adjusted Elo, last season's goal rates and this season's results, with the current season carrying more weight the longer it goes on.