The model makes Plymouth the title favourite, first in 19.5% of 20,000 simulated seasons, ahead of Stockport County on 18.1% and Bradford on 12.3%. On expected points that is Plymouth 76.9, Stockport County 76.3, Bradford 74.6. Two clubs finish in the top four more often than not: Plymouth 55.7%, Stockport County 54.2%.
At the other end, Wigan carries the highest relegation risk at 70.5%, then Peterborough on 54.7% and Notts County on 36.6%. The bottom club averages 43.6 points to Plymouth's 76.9.
Here's the deal with this simulation: it's a distribution of outcomes, not a single answer. It's useful for getting a sense of the range of possibilities for each club, showing you just how wide their potential outcomes might be. But it's important to recognise its limitations. This model doesn't know about upcoming fixtures, injuries, or suspensions. It's blind to the real-world chaos that makes football so unpredictable. What it does give you is a clearer picture of where each club stands right now, compared to the guesswork and noise you'd get from anywhere else. Use it to inform your selections, but always keep in mind that the actual season will throw curveballs this model can't account for.
What has changed since August
The pre-season projection was run before a ball was kicked. 83 matches later, these are the clubs the model has most changed its mind about. Movement is in expected finishing position, which is measured against the rest of the division, so it reflects a changed view rather than simply games being played.
Rising
- Sheffield Wednesday up 6.2 places, expected points 54.5 to 65.1. 14 points from 7 games. Title chance up from 0.2% to 1.6%. Relegation risk down from 28.1% to 2.7%.
- Cambridge United up 5.8 places, expected points 63.2 to 73.8. 12 points from 7 games. Title chance up from 1.6% to 10.6%. Relegation risk down from 6.7% to 0.2%.
- Bradford up 3.2 places, expected points 68.0 to 74.6. 15 points from 7 games. Title chance up from 4.9% to 12.3%. Relegation risk down from 2.5% to 0.1%.
- Huddersfield up 3.2 places, expected points 59.1 to 64.3. 12 points from 7 games. Relegation risk down from 14.9% to 3.3%.
- Reading up 2.4 places, expected points 68.6 to 73.3. 10 points from 6 games. Title chance up from 5.8% to 11.5%. Relegation risk down from 2.3% to 0.4%.
Falling
- Peterborough down 4.7 places, expected points 56.9 to 47.0. 5 points from 7 games. Relegation risk up from 20.3% to 54.7%.
- Mansfield Town down 3.7 places, expected points 69.9 to 63.9. 8 points from 7 games. Title chance down from 6.9% to 1.3%. Relegation risk up from 1.5% to 3.6%.
- Luton down 3.5 places, expected points 75.7 to 69.1. 8 points from 7 games. Title chance down from 19.4% to 4.5%. Relegation risk up from 0.3% to 1.4%.
- Wycombe down 2.9 places, expected points 66.4 to 61.7. 9 points from 7 games. Title chance down from 3.5% to 0.7%. Relegation risk up from 3.5% to 6.2%.
- Milton Keynes Dons down 2.9 places, expected points 62.9 to 58.0. 6 points from 7 games. Title chance down from 1.7% to 0.3%. Relegation risk up from 7.4% to 12.2%.
Compare with the full pre-season table, exactly as the model had it in August.
Every club, every finishing position
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 19.49 | 14.68 | 11.91 | 9.64 | 8.30 | 6.91 | 6.01 | 4.47 | 4.06 | 3.12 | 2.84 | 1.98 | 1.63 | 1.38 | 1.09 | 0.70 | 0.62 | 0.42 | 0.36 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 76.9 |
| Stockport County | 18.12 | 14.14 | 11.72 | 10.22 | 8.23 | 7.06 | 5.83 | 5.02 | 4.17 | 3.43 | 2.67 | 2.34 | 1.87 | 1.44 | 1.15 | 0.92 | 0.59 | 0.43 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 76.3 |
| Bradford | 12.26 | 11.91 | 10.70 | 9.84 | 8.72 | 7.71 | 6.64 | 6.02 | 4.94 | 4.28 | 3.61 | 2.89 | 2.42 | 2.19 | 1.68 | 1.35 | 0.93 | 0.73 | 0.54 | 0.29 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 74.6 |
| Cambridge United | 10.60 | 10.90 | 10.37 | 9.45 | 8.78 | 7.79 | 7.17 | 6.38 | 5.19 | 4.46 | 4.01 | 3.35 | 2.60 | 2.02 | 1.86 | 1.69 | 1.12 | 0.84 | 0.64 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 73.8 |
| Reading | 11.54 | 10.42 | 9.78 | 9.09 | 8.66 | 7.61 | 6.78 | 5.72 | 5.25 | 4.56 | 3.96 | 3.69 | 2.56 | 2.36 | 1.92 | 1.71 | 1.29 | 1.04 | 0.76 | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 73.3 |
| Oxford United | 8.90 | 9.43 | 9.20 | 8.63 | 8.80 | 7.95 | 6.99 | 6.73 | 5.90 | 5.15 | 4.52 | 3.79 | 3.28 | 2.59 | 2.21 | 1.58 | 1.28 | 0.95 | 0.77 | 0.59 | 0.46 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 72.5 |
| Luton | 4.54 | 5.72 | 6.73 | 6.88 | 7.04 | 7.11 | 7.16 | 6.59 | 6.72 | 5.95 | 5.66 | 5.03 | 4.35 | 3.91 | 3.62 | 2.90 | 2.62 | 2.13 | 1.84 | 1.20 | 0.95 | 0.75 | 0.43 | 0.18 | 69.1 |
| Leyton Orient | 4.60 | 5.78 | 6.14 | 6.63 | 6.82 | 7.03 | 6.86 | 6.64 | 6.31 | 6.20 | 5.70 | 5.41 | 4.50 | 4.03 | 3.58 | 3.25 | 2.76 | 2.23 | 1.92 | 1.30 | 1.05 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.15 | 68.7 |
| Stevenage | 2.61 | 3.74 | 4.48 | 5.58 | 6.04 | 6.11 | 6.55 | 7.07 | 6.82 | 6.44 | 6.05 | 5.88 | 5.51 | 5.37 | 4.66 | 3.81 | 3.57 | 2.79 | 2.26 | 1.64 | 1.33 | 0.97 | 0.53 | 0.19 | 66.8 |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 1.63 | 2.66 | 3.57 | 4.28 | 4.80 | 5.20 | 5.61 | 5.91 | 5.99 | 6.41 | 6.50 | 6.30 | 6.18 | 5.78 | 5.41 | 4.98 | 4.39 | 3.67 | 3.28 | 2.77 | 2.01 | 1.50 | 0.89 | 0.29 | 65.1 |
| Huddersfield | 1.38 | 2.42 | 3.38 | 3.94 | 4.33 | 5.12 | 5.25 | 5.81 | 5.95 | 6.13 | 5.63 | 6.19 | 6.04 | 5.88 | 5.46 | 5.03 | 4.99 | 4.37 | 3.86 | 3.03 | 2.51 | 1.80 | 1.09 | 0.42 | 64.3 |
| Mansfield Town | 1.34 | 2.20 | 2.89 | 3.21 | 4.23 | 4.66 | 5.22 | 5.42 | 5.88 | 6.05 | 6.14 | 6.28 | 6.47 | 5.93 | 5.38 | 5.49 | 4.96 | 4.73 | 4.04 | 3.30 | 2.55 | 1.88 | 1.19 | 0.55 | 63.9 |
| Wycombe | 0.69 | 1.32 | 1.92 | 2.57 | 2.86 | 3.45 | 4.15 | 4.66 | 5.10 | 5.39 | 5.85 | 6.16 | 6.19 | 6.28 | 6.02 | 6.14 | 5.99 | 5.50 | 5.02 | 4.61 | 3.91 | 3.08 | 2.15 | 0.99 | 61.7 |
| Burton Albion | 0.58 | 1.17 | 2.00 | 2.42 | 2.82 | 3.15 | 3.83 | 4.33 | 5.12 | 5.21 | 6.00 | 5.78 | 6.44 | 6.24 | 6.58 | 6.10 | 6.22 | 5.56 | 5.14 | 4.72 | 3.94 | 3.36 | 2.15 | 1.17 | 61.3 |
| Blackpool | 0.57 | 1.09 | 1.54 | 2.12 | 2.49 | 3.11 | 3.48 | 4.30 | 4.60 | 5.13 | 5.56 | 5.63 | 6.34 | 6.11 | 6.54 | 6.43 | 6.35 | 6.30 | 5.56 | 4.97 | 4.23 | 3.62 | 2.52 | 1.41 | 60.6 |
| Leicester | 0.43 | 0.80 | 1.26 | 1.59 | 2.10 | 2.68 | 3.25 | 3.46 | 3.91 | 4.57 | 5.25 | 5.44 | 6.16 | 6.49 | 6.56 | 6.91 | 6.65 | 6.51 | 6.17 | 5.73 | 5.14 | 4.20 | 3.04 | 1.67 | 59.7 |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 0.27 | 0.60 | 0.78 | 1.20 | 1.42 | 2.17 | 2.57 | 3.05 | 3.53 | 4.21 | 4.73 | 4.88 | 5.53 | 5.95 | 6.45 | 6.42 | 6.93 | 6.85 | 7.05 | 6.83 | 6.33 | 5.44 | 4.15 | 2.62 | 58.0 |
| Bromley | 0.24 | 0.44 | 0.60 | 1.01 | 1.15 | 1.76 | 2.20 | 2.54 | 2.96 | 3.65 | 4.11 | 4.88 | 4.91 | 5.80 | 5.72 | 6.55 | 6.88 | 7.22 | 7.36 | 7.56 | 7.22 | 6.59 | 5.24 | 3.38 | 57.3 |
| Doncaster | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.46 | 0.73 | 0.88 | 1.20 | 1.47 | 1.99 | 2.32 | 2.97 | 3.25 | 3.99 | 4.86 | 5.34 | 5.59 | 6.42 | 7.12 | 7.81 | 7.93 | 8.28 | 8.43 | 7.62 | 6.53 | 4.50 | 55.3 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 0.53 | 0.84 | 1.03 | 1.28 | 1.96 | 2.32 | 2.77 | 3.53 | 3.74 | 4.88 | 5.85 | 6.67 | 6.75 | 7.84 | 8.33 | 8.94 | 9.47 | 9.40 | 7.86 | 5.25 | 54.3 |
| Barnsley | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.45 | 0.65 | 0.83 | 1.15 | 1.47 | 1.80 | 2.27 | 2.59 | 3.24 | 3.72 | 4.51 | 5.31 | 5.68 | 6.59 | 7.40 | 8.28 | 9.21 | 9.43 | 9.58 | 8.74 | 6.69 | 53.8 |
| Notts County | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.41 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 1.26 | 1.58 | 1.93 | 2.54 | 2.97 | 3.95 | 4.92 | 5.39 | 7.17 | 7.85 | 9.70 | 10.89 | 12.10 | 13.15 | 11.39 | 50.7 |
| Peterborough | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.32 | 0.39 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.98 | 1.55 | 1.73 | 2.31 | 2.81 | 3.70 | 4.73 | 6.45 | 8.09 | 10.56 | 13.87 | 18.85 | 22.00 | 47.0 | |
| Wigan | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 0.43 | 0.61 | 0.82 | 1.12 | 1.55 | 2.32 | 2.81 | 4.32 | 5.97 | 8.59 | 12.75 | 20.74 | 37.04 | 43.6 |
Each cell is the percentage of 20,000 simulated seasons in which that club finished in that position, so every row adds up to 100%. A blank cell is under 0.005%, not impossible. The xPts column is the club's average points total across those seasons.
View the same grid as a shaded heatmap, which is easier to scan than the table above.
How it's built
The table above is where the division actually stands after 83 matches, finished off 20,000 times over. Points already won are treated as certain, and only the 469 fixtures left to play are simulated, from each club's attacking and defending strength: a blend of shots-adjusted Elo, last season's goal rates and how the club has actually played this season, the last of those counting for more the longer the season runs. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial and Dixon-Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. It knows nothing about upcoming fixture difficulty, injuries or suspensions.
_Generated from the BetSignals season simulation, 20,000 runs._