Monte Carlo · 100,000 simulated seasons
Where every club finishes: League One 2026–27
Published
Each row is a club, ordered by expected finish. Each column is a final league position. The cell shading is how often that club finished in that spot across 100,000 simulations, so every row adds up to 100%. Read across a row to see a club's whole range of outcomes.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stockport County | 22.61 | 15.84 | 11.53 | 9.28 | 7.45 | 5.98 | 4.96 | 4.20 | 3.50 | 2.83 | 2.39 | 2.04 | 1.68 | 1.34 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 0.71 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.28 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 76.8 |
| 2Luton | 19.53 | 14.75 | 11.51 | 9.27 | 7.65 | 6.41 | 5.38 | 4.56 | 3.79 | 3.14 | 2.65 | 2.21 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 1.29 | 1.12 | 0.89 | 0.66 | 0.56 | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 75.7 |
| 3Plymouth | 16.90 | 13.61 | 11.21 | 9.22 | 7.96 | 6.50 | 5.69 | 4.74 | 4.18 | 3.53 | 3.06 | 2.70 | 2.15 | 1.88 | 1.50 | 1.31 | 1.07 | 0.82 | 0.66 | 0.49 | 0.37 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 74.8 |
| 4Mansfield Town | 6.76 | 7.80 | 7.95 | 7.88 | 7.40 | 7.22 | 6.61 | 6.02 | 5.55 | 5.12 | 4.60 | 4.30 | 3.96 | 3.36 | 2.97 | 2.68 | 2.28 | 2.06 | 1.64 | 1.34 | 1.08 | 0.74 | 0.47 | 0.23 | 69.8 |
| 5Reading | 5.68 | 6.79 | 7.14 | 6.92 | 6.72 | 6.71 | 6.34 | 6.03 | 5.59 | 5.39 | 5.06 | 4.61 | 4.10 | 3.86 | 3.46 | 2.98 | 2.77 | 2.37 | 2.10 | 1.69 | 1.44 | 1.06 | 0.76 | 0.42 | 68.6 |
| 6Oxford United | 4.52 | 5.82 | 6.43 | 6.69 | 6.86 | 6.72 | 6.49 | 6.12 | 5.93 | 5.65 | 5.24 | 4.84 | 4.52 | 4.05 | 3.69 | 3.35 | 2.97 | 2.57 | 2.17 | 1.84 | 1.42 | 1.05 | 0.72 | 0.36 | 68.0 |
| 7Bradford | 4.81 | 5.94 | 6.57 | 6.77 | 6.64 | 6.48 | 6.35 | 6.01 | 5.80 | 5.41 | 5.09 | 4.74 | 4.53 | 4.05 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.58 | 2.28 | 1.91 | 1.55 | 1.21 | 0.79 | 0.43 | 67.9 |
| 8Wycombe | 3.43 | 4.66 | 5.48 | 5.59 | 5.99 | 5.95 | 6.01 | 5.85 | 5.73 | 5.55 | 5.32 | 5.07 | 4.83 | 4.56 | 4.28 | 3.86 | 3.56 | 3.19 | 2.95 | 2.48 | 2.05 | 1.66 | 1.22 | 0.74 | 66.3 |
| 9Stevenage | 2.76 | 4.14 | 4.85 | 5.50 | 5.66 | 5.87 | 5.99 | 6.00 | 5.90 | 5.85 | 5.66 | 5.49 | 5.21 | 4.72 | 4.45 | 4.04 | 3.74 | 3.27 | 2.91 | 2.44 | 2.12 | 1.67 | 1.12 | 0.64 | 65.9 |
| 10Leyton Orient | 2.88 | 3.90 | 4.51 | 5.04 | 5.29 | 5.49 | 5.43 | 5.60 | 5.52 | 5.41 | 5.34 | 5.24 | 4.96 | 4.78 | 4.53 | 4.28 | 4.02 | 3.68 | 3.40 | 3.01 | 2.63 | 2.28 | 1.66 | 1.13 | 65.1 |
| 11Leicester | 1.86 | 2.81 | 3.50 | 4.02 | 4.41 | 4.75 | 4.93 | 5.31 | 5.21 | 5.49 | 5.26 | 5.37 | 5.25 | 5.22 | 5.22 | 4.83 | 4.65 | 4.34 | 4.02 | 3.65 | 3.36 | 2.87 | 2.18 | 1.49 | 63.5 |
| 12Cambridge United | 1.59 | 2.50 | 3.36 | 3.79 | 4.16 | 4.70 | 4.87 | 5.09 | 5.28 | 5.44 | 5.54 | 5.39 | 5.38 | 5.32 | 5.25 | 5.12 | 4.79 | 4.40 | 4.18 | 3.80 | 3.31 | 2.87 | 2.38 | 1.49 | 63.2 |
| 13Milton Keynes Dons | 1.69 | 2.44 | 3.28 | 3.76 | 4.21 | 4.43 | 4.79 | 4.83 | 5.19 | 5.32 | 5.27 | 5.34 | 5.35 | 5.20 | 5.11 | 5.07 | 4.83 | 4.59 | 4.34 | 3.98 | 3.64 | 3.14 | 2.46 | 1.71 | 62.9 |
| 14Bromley | 1.26 | 1.96 | 2.56 | 3.07 | 3.56 | 3.82 | 4.14 | 4.45 | 4.65 | 4.77 | 5.08 | 5.19 | 5.38 | 5.28 | 5.27 | 5.41 | 5.22 | 5.26 | 4.91 | 4.64 | 4.39 | 3.94 | 3.27 | 2.54 | 61.5 |
| 15Blackpool | 0.97 | 1.60 | 2.18 | 2.64 | 3.14 | 3.53 | 3.89 | 4.33 | 4.58 | 4.71 | 4.92 | 5.08 | 5.30 | 5.48 | 5.54 | 5.58 | 5.58 | 5.56 | 5.21 | 5.03 | 4.69 | 4.26 | 3.59 | 2.61 | 60.9 |
| 16Burton Albion | 0.72 | 1.32 | 1.89 | 2.43 | 2.79 | 3.13 | 3.69 | 4.01 | 4.28 | 4.59 | 4.88 | 5.06 | 5.36 | 5.53 | 5.72 | 5.65 | 5.67 | 5.80 | 5.54 | 5.53 | 5.08 | 4.47 | 3.98 | 2.89 | 60.2 |
| 17Huddersfield | 0.66 | 1.15 | 1.63 | 2.07 | 2.41 | 2.85 | 3.13 | 3.50 | 3.95 | 4.05 | 4.48 | 4.81 | 4.87 | 5.29 | 5.44 | 5.63 | 5.77 | 5.94 | 5.84 | 5.94 | 5.78 | 5.49 | 5.08 | 4.25 | 59.1 |
| 18Barnsley | 0.44 | 0.92 | 1.27 | 1.68 | 2.04 | 2.36 | 2.68 | 2.99 | 3.38 | 3.75 | 4.13 | 4.49 | 4.85 | 5.10 | 5.48 | 5.63 | 6.05 | 6.07 | 6.30 | 6.62 | 6.34 | 6.32 | 6.04 | 5.07 | 58.0 |
| 19Doncaster | 0.31 | 0.66 | 0.97 | 1.41 | 1.60 | 1.98 | 2.37 | 2.77 | 3.02 | 3.43 | 3.89 | 4.17 | 4.64 | 5.12 | 5.33 | 5.75 | 6.08 | 6.37 | 6.74 | 6.96 | 7.04 | 6.95 | 6.56 | 5.87 | 57.0 |
| 20Peterborough | 0.34 | 0.68 | 1.00 | 1.31 | 1.68 | 2.03 | 2.29 | 2.74 | 3.08 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 4.01 | 4.46 | 4.92 | 5.28 | 5.62 | 6.01 | 6.45 | 6.75 | 6.96 | 6.98 | 7.01 | 6.88 | 6.42 | 56.9 |
| 21Sheffield Wednesday | 0.16 | 0.34 | 0.56 | 0.81 | 1.08 | 1.35 | 1.58 | 1.88 | 2.17 | 2.68 | 2.97 | 3.33 | 3.75 | 4.16 | 4.81 | 5.25 | 5.76 | 6.34 | 6.97 | 7.62 | 8.31 | 9.00 | 9.42 | 9.74 | 54.5 |
| 22Notts County | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 0.52 | 0.75 | 0.93 | 1.17 | 1.50 | 1.73 | 2.04 | 2.51 | 2.80 | 3.24 | 3.83 | 4.44 | 5.17 | 5.89 | 6.89 | 7.89 | 9.21 | 10.76 | 12.68 | 15.21 | 51.8 |
| 23Wigan | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.28 | 0.43 | 0.54 | 0.76 | 0.99 | 1.19 | 1.46 | 1.87 | 2.11 | 2.53 | 3.19 | 3.61 | 4.29 | 4.85 | 5.90 | 7.02 | 8.07 | 9.50 | 11.32 | 13.67 | 16.07 | 51.2 |
| 24AFC Wimbledon | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 0.69 | 0.82 | 1.03 | 1.30 | 1.55 | 1.91 | 2.20 | 2.70 | 3.19 | 3.82 | 4.53 | 5.36 | 6.26 | 7.47 | 9.21 | 11.38 | 14.72 | 20.50 | 50.1 |
How it's built. Every one of the 552 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial + Dixon–Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Strengths are frozen at pre-season, so this is a start-of-season expectation, not a mid-season read.