Monte Carlo · after matchweek 7 · 20,000 simulated seasons

Where every club finishes: Eredivisie 2026⁠–⁠27

Published 21 September 2026 at 11:24 BST

63 of 306 matches played (through matchweek 7). Points already won are carried in as certain; only the 243 remaining fixtures are simulated. Compare with what the model said before a ball was kicked.

Each row is a club, ordered by expected finish. Each column is a final league position. The cell shading is how often that club finished in that spot across 20,000 simulations, so every row adds up to 100%. Read across a row to see a club's whole range of outcomes.

Chance of finishing there

02510204070100%

Hover any cell for the exact probability. Pts is what each club has already banked.
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	Pts	xPts
1PSV Eindhoven	56.86	22.51	10.91	5.39	2.65	0.96	0.44	0.20	0.05	0.01	0.02								16	73.5
2Feyenoord	17.94	25.11	20.71	14.92	10.02	5.83	3.06	1.32	0.54	0.32	0.15	0.05	0.03						17	66.6
3AZ Alkmaar	11.11	18.80	19.26	18.27	13.79	8.76	5.15	2.53	1.26	0.60	0.28	0.09	0.06	0.01	0.01	0.01			19	64.4
4Ajax	6.98	15.20	18.83	18.37	15.71	10.57	6.75	3.55	2.19	0.97	0.46	0.29	0.08	0.01	0.02				14	62.4
5Twente	5.69	12.95	16.96	18.66	17.11	11.92	7.61	4.34	2.39	1.24	0.56	0.37	0.10	0.06	0.01	0.01			16	61.8
6Groningen	0.77	2.81	6.01	9.79	14.21	17.47	15.42	11.66	8.37	5.45	3.59	2.14	1.20	0.63	0.35	0.11	0.02		11	54.5
7GO Ahead Eagles	0.44	1.55	3.97	6.93	10.97	14.92	16.13	13.61	10.71	7.75	5.37	3.31	2.21	1.06	0.65	0.30	0.10	0.01	10	52.2
8Excelsior	0.10	0.63	1.82	3.95	6.51	10.99	13.55	15.05	13.23	11.33	8.22	5.94	4.23	2.27	1.35	0.57	0.19	0.06	11	49.0
9Heerenveen	0.03	0.11	0.42	1.16	2.58	5.25	8.35	11.04	12.73	13.23	12.35	10.70	8.42	6.17	3.96	2.19	1.00	0.29	9	44.4
10Fortuna Sittard	0.01	0.16	0.46	0.88	2.01	3.84	6.70	9.55	11.90	12.50	12.77	11.69	10.07	7.75	4.93	3.19	1.29	0.33	13	43.7
11NEC Nijmegen	0.03	0.14	0.42	0.84	2.20	3.94	6.72	9.94	11.72	12.30	12.35	11.59	9.80	7.69	5.29	2.99	1.57	0.47	8	43.3
12Telstar	0.01	0.01	0.10	0.40	1.12	2.47	4.13	6.49	8.71	11.06	12.15	12.98	12.17	10.66	8.16	5.20	2.85	1.33	5	40.7
13Utrecht	0.01	0.02	0.10	0.40	0.83	1.95	3.73	6.22	8.71	10.60	11.91	12.70	12.30	10.91	8.65	5.98	3.63	1.35	5	40.4
14ADO Den Haag			0.01		0.09	0.43	0.77	1.75	2.65	4.21	6.60	8.71	10.61	14.07	14.99	14.99	12.46	7.64	2	33.8
15Cambuur			0.01	0.03	0.13	0.42	0.80	1.40	2.27	4.03	6.07	8.28	11.27	14.01	15.67	15.41	12.63	7.59	5	33.8
16Sparta Rotterdam			0.01	0.01	0.08	0.24	0.56	1.09	1.86	3.07	4.69	6.97	9.98	12.93	16.26	17.75	14.92	9.57	5	32.5
17PEC Zwolle						0.04	0.07	0.15	0.50	0.78	1.51	2.68	4.40	6.74	10.79	17.17	25.30	29.86	4	27.4
18Willem II							0.04	0.08	0.21	0.53	0.95	1.52	3.10	5.00	8.91	14.13	24.04	41.48	2	25.4

How it's built. Every one of the 243 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial + Dixon⁠–⁠Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Those are the fixtures still to be played: points already won are carried in as certain rather than re-simulated. Strengths blend shots-adjusted Elo, last season's goal rates and this season's results, with the current season carrying more weight the longer it goes on.