Monte Carlo · pre-season · 1,000,000 simulated seasons
Where every club finishes: Eredivisie 2026–27
Published
Each row is a club, ordered by expected finish. Each column is a final league position. The cell shading is how often that club finished in that spot across 1,000,000 simulations, so every row adds up to 100%. Read across a row to see a club's whole range of outcomes.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PSV Eindhoven | 65.52 | 17.48 | 7.65 | 4.00 | 2.23 | 1.31 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 70.7 | ||||
| 2Ajax | 10.31 | 19.99 | 16.52 | 12.97 | 10.27 | 8.06 | 6.22 | 4.83 | 3.61 | 2.65 | 1.84 | 1.22 | 0.74 | 0.41 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 59.4 |
| 3Feyenoord | 8.78 | 17.80 | 15.82 | 13.01 | 10.57 | 8.57 | 6.83 | 5.45 | 4.20 | 3.16 | 2.23 | 1.52 | 0.97 | 0.57 | 0.30 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 58.5 |
| 4Twente | 4.66 | 11.29 | 12.59 | 12.27 | 11.31 | 9.97 | 8.74 | 7.42 | 6.17 | 4.94 | 3.79 | 2.73 | 1.83 | 1.12 | 0.64 | 0.33 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 55.5 |
| 5AZ Alkmaar | 2.45 | 6.95 | 8.96 | 9.83 | 10.09 | 9.96 | 9.56 | 8.84 | 8.03 | 6.92 | 5.76 | 4.47 | 3.29 | 2.21 | 1.37 | 0.79 | 0.37 | 0.14 | 52.7 |
| 6NEC Nijmegen | 2.40 | 6.76 | 8.64 | 9.58 | 9.89 | 9.88 | 9.44 | 8.89 | 8.04 | 7.10 | 5.91 | 4.67 | 3.48 | 2.38 | 1.48 | 0.86 | 0.44 | 0.17 | 52.4 |
| 7Groningen | 2.05 | 6.15 | 8.21 | 9.41 | 10.02 | 10.04 | 9.82 | 9.19 | 8.35 | 7.31 | 6.11 | 4.79 | 3.45 | 2.33 | 1.43 | 0.80 | 0.39 | 0.14 | 52.2 |
| 8GO Ahead Eagles | 1.23 | 3.98 | 5.79 | 7.17 | 8.14 | 8.84 | 9.27 | 9.32 | 9.17 | 8.63 | 7.77 | 6.56 | 5.15 | 3.73 | 2.51 | 1.55 | 0.84 | 0.34 | 49.9 |
| 9Utrecht | 1.00 | 3.43 | 5.29 | 6.83 | 7.88 | 8.81 | 9.35 | 9.66 | 9.50 | 9.00 | 8.08 | 6.84 | 5.31 | 3.80 | 2.54 | 1.54 | 0.80 | 0.31 | 49.6 |
| 10ADO Den Haag | 0.69 | 2.49 | 3.97 | 5.30 | 6.43 | 7.44 | 8.30 | 8.92 | 9.39 | 9.45 | 9.08 | 8.19 | 6.79 | 5.26 | 3.74 | 2.46 | 1.45 | 0.65 | 47.8 |
| 11Telstar | 0.64 | 2.35 | 3.80 | 5.06 | 6.24 | 7.24 | 8.19 | 8.88 | 9.37 | 9.52 | 9.19 | 8.38 | 6.99 | 5.44 | 3.91 | 2.62 | 1.51 | 0.67 | 47.6 |
| 12Heerenveen | 0.18 | 0.78 | 1.50 | 2.32 | 3.25 | 4.25 | 5.33 | 6.52 | 7.79 | 8.97 | 10.05 | 10.57 | 10.30 | 9.13 | 7.41 | 5.67 | 3.86 | 2.13 | 43.4 |
| 13Excelsior | 0.07 | 0.37 | 0.78 | 1.31 | 1.97 | 2.79 | 3.74 | 4.88 | 6.16 | 7.63 | 9.28 | 10.64 | 11.49 | 11.10 | 9.90 | 8.10 | 6.06 | 3.72 | 41.0 |
| 14Cambuur | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.20 | 0.37 | 0.62 | 0.99 | 1.49 | 2.16 | 3.05 | 4.23 | 5.70 | 7.68 | 9.89 | 11.93 | 13.28 | 13.72 | 13.16 | 11.44 | 36.1 |
| 15Fortuna Sittard | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.43 | 0.72 | 1.09 | 1.66 | 2.40 | 3.49 | 4.94 | 6.78 | 9.04 | 11.48 | 13.57 | 14.80 | 15.13 | 14.05 | 35.0 |
| 16Sparta Rotterdam | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.34 | 0.57 | 0.90 | 1.42 | 2.15 | 3.15 | 4.53 | 6.41 | 8.69 | 11.32 | 13.68 | 15.32 | 16.03 | 15.17 | 34.4 | |
| 17Willem II | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 0.48 | 0.78 | 1.22 | 1.93 | 2.94 | 4.40 | 6.48 | 9.09 | 12.23 | 15.75 | 19.71 | 24.44 | 32.0 | |
| 18PEC Zwolle | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.46 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 1.78 | 2.72 | 4.10 | 6.09 | 8.69 | 11.80 | 15.45 | 19.99 | 26.53 | 31.6 |
How it's built. Every one of the 306 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial + Dixon–Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Strengths are frozen at pre-season, so this is a start-of-season expectation, not a mid-season read.