Monte Carlo · after matchweek 6 · 20,000 simulated seasons
Where every club finishes: 2. Bundesliga 2026–27
Published
54 of 306 matches played (through matchweek 6). Points already won are carried in as certain; only the 252 remaining fixtures are simulated. Compare with what the model said before a ball was kicked.
Each row is a club, ordered by expected finish. Each column is a final league position. The cell shading is how often that club finished in that spot across 20,000 simulations, so every row adds up to 100%. Read across a row to see a club's whole range of outcomes.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | Pts | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hertha BSC | 36.21 | 25.07 | 15.78 | 10.03 | 5.41 | 3.22 | 1.69 | 1.15 | 0.69 | 0.34 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 18 | 64.8 | ||
| 2VfL Wolfsburg | 32.88 | 24.82 | 16.42 | 10.44 | 6.21 | 3.66 | 2.21 | 1.32 | 0.86 | 0.46 | 0.28 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 11 | 63.7 | |
| 31. FC Nürnberg | 13.64 | 17.27 | 18.86 | 15.42 | 10.97 | 7.76 | 5.27 | 3.87 | 2.26 | 1.70 | 1.15 | 0.66 | 0.56 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 16 | 59.1 |
| 41. FC Heidenheim | 10.95 | 16.30 | 17.58 | 15.78 | 11.69 | 8.39 | 5.75 | 4.32 | 3.02 | 2.16 | 1.44 | 1.01 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 13 | 58.3 |
| 5Hannover 96 | 2.53 | 5.24 | 9.33 | 11.87 | 13.11 | 11.80 | 9.65 | 8.44 | 6.94 | 5.36 | 4.59 | 3.52 | 2.67 | 2.07 | 1.22 | 0.92 | 0.51 | 0.24 | 7 | 51.9 |
| 61. FC Kaiserslautern | 1.62 | 4.13 | 7.02 | 9.56 | 11.55 | 11.53 | 10.70 | 9.14 | 7.85 | 6.88 | 5.66 | 4.42 | 3.48 | 2.49 | 1.78 | 1.14 | 0.73 | 0.32 | 11 | 50.6 |
| 7FC St. Pauli | 0.71 | 2.13 | 4.08 | 6.82 | 8.66 | 10.25 | 10.64 | 9.78 | 9.00 | 8.10 | 7.30 | 6.06 | 4.86 | 3.94 | 3.40 | 2.16 | 1.38 | 0.74 | 7 | 47.9 |
| 81. FC Magdeburg | 0.40 | 1.15 | 2.55 | 4.01 | 6.17 | 7.03 | 7.94 | 8.82 | 8.64 | 8.43 | 8.22 | 7.61 | 7.11 | 6.43 | 5.47 | 4.59 | 3.50 | 1.96 | 10 | 45.3 |
| 9Arminia Bielefeld | 0.24 | 1.14 | 2.15 | 3.52 | 5.32 | 7.30 | 7.82 | 8.62 | 8.61 | 9.01 | 8.23 | 7.59 | 7.07 | 6.53 | 5.94 | 4.66 | 3.76 | 2.51 | 5 | 44.6 |
| 10Holstein Kiel | 0.31 | 0.89 | 1.86 | 3.72 | 5.17 | 6.85 | 7.81 | 8.34 | 8.48 | 8.06 | 8.12 | 7.76 | 7.32 | 6.89 | 5.92 | 5.15 | 4.37 | 2.98 | 4 | 44.2 |
| 11VfL Bochum | 0.11 | 0.48 | 0.95 | 1.97 | 3.26 | 4.57 | 6.19 | 6.69 | 7.75 | 8.28 | 8.57 | 8.76 | 9.07 | 8.56 | 7.70 | 7.27 | 5.56 | 4.27 | 7 | 42.3 |
| 12Energie Cottbus | 0.21 | 0.52 | 1.07 | 2.16 | 3.43 | 4.37 | 5.79 | 6.67 | 7.34 | 8.18 | 8.05 | 8.27 | 8.74 | 8.08 | 7.97 | 7.16 | 6.64 | 5.35 | 8 | 42.1 |
| 13Dynamo Dresden | 0.10 | 0.41 | 1.15 | 1.77 | 3.25 | 4.49 | 5.68 | 6.40 | 7.12 | 7.60 | 8.25 | 8.24 | 8.06 | 8.25 | 8.18 | 7.62 | 7.37 | 6.05 | 4 | 41.7 |
| 14SV Darmstadt 98 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.40 | 0.84 | 1.70 | 2.46 | 3.62 | 4.54 | 5.51 | 6.63 | 6.85 | 8.19 | 8.87 | 9.48 | 9.88 | 10.64 | 10.30 | 9.94 | 4 | 39.2 |
| 15Karlsruher SC | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0.34 | 0.98 | 1.75 | 2.47 | 3.48 | 4.22 | 5.07 | 6.07 | 7.23 | 8.06 | 8.23 | 9.48 | 10.02 | 10.76 | 10.49 | 11.14 | 5 | 39.0 |
| 16Eintracht Braunschweig | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.40 | 0.78 | 1.32 | 2.13 | 2.64 | 3.86 | 4.52 | 5.27 | 6.69 | 8.04 | 9.15 | 10.29 | 12.82 | 14.94 | 16.92 | 4 | 36.3 |
| 17VfL Osnabrück | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.40 | 0.78 | 1.32 | 1.89 | 2.45 | 3.56 | 4.17 | 5.41 | 6.19 | 7.67 | 8.90 | 11.16 | 12.66 | 15.38 | 17.82 | 7 | 36.4 |
| 18SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 0.78 | 1.18 | 1.73 | 2.60 | 3.43 | 4.10 | 5.25 | 6.70 | 7.31 | 8.98 | 10.57 | 12.20 | 14.95 | 19.71 | 6 | 36.0 |
How it's built. Every one of the 252 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial + Dixon–Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Those are the fixtures still to be played: points already won are carried in as certain rather than re-simulated. Strengths blend shots-adjusted Elo, last season's goal rates and this season's results, with the current season carrying more weight the longer it goes on.