Monte Carlo · 1,000,000 simulated seasons
Where every club finishes: League Two 2026–27
Published
Each row is a club, ordered by expected finish. Each column is a final league position. The cell shading is how often that club finished in that spot across 1,000,000 simulations, so every row adds up to 100%. Read across a row to see a club's whole range of outcomes.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1York | 55.11 | 20.51 | 9.92 | 5.54 | 3.29 | 2.05 | 1.30 | 0.84 | 0.54 | 0.34 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 91.5 | |||||||
| 2Rochdale | 20.30 | 25.06 | 16.43 | 11.17 | 7.89 | 5.58 | 4.04 | 2.91 | 2.08 | 1.46 | 1.03 | 0.73 | 0.48 | 0.33 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 84.2 | |||
| 3Grimsby | 6.51 | 11.93 | 13.22 | 12.20 | 10.56 | 9.02 | 7.65 | 6.36 | 5.21 | 4.21 | 3.39 | 2.65 | 2.06 | 1.55 | 1.15 | 0.84 | 0.58 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 77.1 | |
| 4Barnet | 4.78 | 9.54 | 11.55 | 11.39 | 10.52 | 9.35 | 8.18 | 7.05 | 6.00 | 4.95 | 4.05 | 3.29 | 2.59 | 2.05 | 1.50 | 1.12 | 0.79 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 75.5 |
| 5Swindon Town | 3.62 | 7.64 | 9.60 | 10.05 | 9.85 | 9.20 | 8.44 | 7.50 | 6.64 | 5.68 | 4.79 | 4.01 | 3.32 | 2.65 | 2.09 | 1.59 | 1.16 | 0.82 | 0.57 | 0.37 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 73.8 |
| 6Exeter City | 2.92 | 6.64 | 8.92 | 9.75 | 9.87 | 9.41 | 8.72 | 7.92 | 6.91 | 6.05 | 5.13 | 4.26 | 3.50 | 2.81 | 2.18 | 1.65 | 1.21 | 0.85 | 0.57 | 0.36 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 73.2 |
| 7Colchester | 1.96 | 4.94 | 7.07 | 8.24 | 8.83 | 8.94 | 8.60 | 8.20 | 7.56 | 6.77 | 6.01 | 5.13 | 4.29 | 3.56 | 2.86 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.22 | 0.83 | 0.53 | 0.32 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 71.4 |
| 8Chesterfield | 1.74 | 4.27 | 6.26 | 7.39 | 7.99 | 8.31 | 8.20 | 7.94 | 7.57 | 6.96 | 6.27 | 5.57 | 4.83 | 4.04 | 3.36 | 2.71 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 1.15 | 0.77 | 0.49 | 0.28 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 70.3 |
| 9Oldham | 1.41 | 3.73 | 5.80 | 7.18 | 7.96 | 8.46 | 8.56 | 8.31 | 7.83 | 7.30 | 6.55 | 5.78 | 4.93 | 4.13 | 3.38 | 2.67 | 2.05 | 1.48 | 1.05 | 0.68 | 0.41 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 70.1 |
| 10Rotherham | 0.41 | 1.30 | 2.33 | 3.30 | 4.23 | 5.04 | 5.76 | 6.39 | 6.82 | 7.17 | 7.30 | 7.27 | 6.97 | 6.60 | 6.04 | 5.40 | 4.65 | 3.88 | 3.10 | 2.38 | 1.70 | 1.09 | 0.61 | 0.25 | 64.5 |
| 11Port Vale | 0.29 | 1.01 | 1.96 | 2.94 | 3.89 | 4.83 | 5.63 | 6.33 | 6.91 | 7.41 | 7.63 | 7.56 | 7.38 | 6.96 | 6.33 | 5.65 | 4.78 | 3.93 | 3.06 | 2.26 | 1.57 | 0.98 | 0.52 | 0.20 | 64.1 |
| 12Walsall | 0.32 | 1.10 | 2.05 | 2.99 | 3.84 | 4.69 | 5.53 | 6.16 | 6.69 | 7.09 | 7.29 | 7.31 | 7.15 | 6.81 | 6.33 | 5.68 | 4.93 | 4.17 | 3.34 | 2.57 | 1.83 | 1.20 | 0.66 | 0.27 | 63.9 |
| 13Crewe | 0.31 | 1.02 | 1.89 | 2.78 | 3.59 | 4.41 | 5.16 | 5.88 | 6.44 | 6.89 | 7.10 | 7.25 | 7.18 | 6.90 | 6.51 | 5.92 | 5.27 | 4.45 | 3.65 | 2.84 | 2.07 | 1.37 | 0.80 | 0.34 | 63.4 |
| 14Salford City | 0.15 | 0.57 | 1.17 | 1.82 | 2.53 | 3.28 | 4.04 | 4.78 | 5.53 | 6.11 | 6.72 | 7.11 | 7.37 | 7.35 | 7.26 | 6.88 | 6.34 | 5.61 | 4.79 | 3.85 | 2.93 | 2.04 | 1.24 | 0.55 | 61.2 |
| 15Accrington ST | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.47 | 0.82 | 1.26 | 1.74 | 2.33 | 2.97 | 3.68 | 4.40 | 5.18 | 5.86 | 6.60 | 7.24 | 7.63 | 7.88 | 7.89 | 7.59 | 7.03 | 6.17 | 5.12 | 3.86 | 2.66 | 1.38 | 57.5 |
| 16Bristol Rovers | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.49 | 0.81 | 1.22 | 1.67 | 2.22 | 2.85 | 3.50 | 4.17 | 4.92 | 5.62 | 6.29 | 6.92 | 7.44 | 7.75 | 7.88 | 7.67 | 7.27 | 6.48 | 5.53 | 4.29 | 3.06 | 1.70 | 57.1 |
| 17Fleetwood Town | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.34 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 1.42 | 1.94 | 2.48 | 3.14 | 3.85 | 4.62 | 5.39 | 6.14 | 6.87 | 7.47 | 7.92 | 8.19 | 8.03 | 7.69 | 6.94 | 5.96 | 4.70 | 3.29 | 1.80 | 56.4 |
| 18Northampton | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.34 | 0.62 | 0.99 | 1.42 | 1.91 | 2.48 | 3.13 | 3.85 | 4.55 | 5.36 | 6.13 | 6.86 | 7.46 | 7.92 | 8.19 | 8.12 | 7.69 | 7.03 | 5.93 | 4.72 | 3.34 | 1.79 | 56.4 |
| 19Crawley Town | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.32 | 0.51 | 0.76 | 1.05 | 1.48 | 1.97 | 2.55 | 3.26 | 4.08 | 4.91 | 5.89 | 6.90 | 7.88 | 8.84 | 9.43 | 9.80 | 9.52 | 8.65 | 7.10 | 4.78 | 51.9 |
| 20Gillingham | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 0.28 | 0.42 | 0.64 | 0.89 | 1.24 | 1.68 | 2.21 | 2.86 | 3.62 | 4.53 | 5.49 | 6.64 | 7.94 | 9.18 | 10.27 | 11.13 | 11.35 | 10.64 | 8.64 | 49.2 | |
| 21Shrewsbury | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.49 | 0.72 | 1.02 | 1.42 | 1.94 | 2.51 | 3.28 | 4.19 | 5.28 | 6.46 | 7.84 | 9.31 | 10.69 | 11.75 | 12.08 | 11.30 | 8.95 | 48.6 | |
| 22Newport County | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 0.35 | 0.51 | 0.73 | 1.05 | 1.45 | 1.96 | 2.68 | 3.54 | 4.60 | 5.99 | 7.69 | 9.66 | 11.92 | 14.29 | 16.35 | 16.72 | 45.3 | ||
| 23Cheltenham | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.24 | 0.36 | 0.53 | 0.76 | 1.07 | 1.50 | 2.03 | 2.77 | 3.73 | 4.97 | 6.47 | 8.48 | 10.98 | 14.29 | 18.36 | 23.09 | 43.6 | ||
| 24Tranmere | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.34 | 0.51 | 0.73 | 1.05 | 1.47 | 2.09 | 2.91 | 4.02 | 5.52 | 7.50 | 10.20 | 14.08 | 19.61 | 29.41 | 41.9 |
How it's built. Every one of the 552 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial + Dixon–Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Strengths are frozen at pre-season, so this is a start-of-season expectation, not a mid-season read.