Monte Carlo · 1,000,000 simulated seasons
Where every club finishes: La Liga 2026–27
Published
Each row is a club, ordered by expected finish. Each column is a final league position. The cell shading is how often that club finished in that spot across 1,000,000 simulations, so every row adds up to 100%. Read across a row to see a club's whole range of outcomes.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona | 53.36 | 33.72 | 8.88 | 2.71 | 0.86 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 82.7 | ||||||||||
| 2Real Madrid | 40.14 | 41.35 | 12.12 | 4.06 | 1.47 | 0.52 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 80.8 | |||||||||
| 3Villarreal | 3.52 | 11.40 | 29.05 | 21.14 | 13.54 | 8.01 | 4.85 | 3.04 | 1.94 | 1.27 | 0.82 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.23 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 67.5 | |
| 4Atletico Madrid | 1.46 | 5.98 | 19.01 | 21.24 | 17.04 | 11.46 | 7.62 | 5.18 | 3.53 | 2.47 | 1.69 | 1.18 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 64.1 |
| 5Real Betis | 1.23 | 5.25 | 17.23 | 20.38 | 17.36 | 12.00 | 8.20 | 5.68 | 3.93 | 2.76 | 1.98 | 1.35 | 0.97 | 0.65 | 0.44 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 63.4 |
| 6Celta Vigo | 0.15 | 1.01 | 4.83 | 8.77 | 11.73 | 12.89 | 11.72 | 10.01 | 8.38 | 7.01 | 5.72 | 4.65 | 3.71 | 2.95 | 2.27 | 1.66 | 1.18 | 0.76 | 0.43 | 0.17 | 56.1 |
| 7Rayo Vallecano | 0.06 | 0.46 | 2.61 | 5.58 | 8.47 | 10.47 | 10.86 | 10.34 | 9.33 | 8.31 | 7.19 | 6.20 | 5.21 | 4.30 | 3.46 | 2.67 | 2.00 | 1.36 | 0.78 | 0.34 | 53.5 |
| 8Osasuna | 0.02 | 0.22 | 1.51 | 3.45 | 5.71 | 7.69 | 8.85 | 9.13 | 9.10 | 8.63 | 8.07 | 7.40 | 6.65 | 5.87 | 5.03 | 4.25 | 3.40 | 2.56 | 1.66 | 0.80 | 51.0 |
| 9Getafe | 0.01 | 0.14 | 1.02 | 2.66 | 4.76 | 6.93 | 8.35 | 9.04 | 9.27 | 9.03 | 8.61 | 7.94 | 7.22 | 6.43 | 5.49 | 4.52 | 3.61 | 2.59 | 1.63 | 0.74 | 50.3 |
| 10Valencia | 0.02 | 0.18 | 1.22 | 2.91 | 4.95 | 7.02 | 8.20 | 8.82 | 8.92 | 8.71 | 8.28 | 7.70 | 7.06 | 6.32 | 5.52 | 4.67 | 3.79 | 2.87 | 1.90 | 0.95 | 50.3 |
| 11Athletic Club | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.72 | 1.90 | 3.44 | 5.10 | 6.39 | 7.27 | 7.82 | 8.10 | 8.19 | 8.19 | 7.81 | 7.38 | 6.84 | 6.19 | 5.36 | 4.31 | 3.12 | 1.74 | 48.3 |
| 12Real Sociedad | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.65 | 1.69 | 3.10 | 4.63 | 5.83 | 6.71 | 7.40 | 7.71 | 7.91 | 7.97 | 7.85 | 7.58 | 7.12 | 6.68 | 5.92 | 5.03 | 3.82 | 2.30 | 47.6 |
| 13Sevilla | 0.04 | 0.37 | 1.05 | 2.12 | 3.41 | 4.59 | 5.61 | 6.45 | 7.12 | 7.68 | 7.99 | 8.29 | 8.29 | 8.10 | 7.70 | 7.13 | 6.20 | 4.86 | 2.98 | 46.1 | |
| 14Alaves | 0.02 | 0.22 | 0.65 | 1.41 | 2.36 | 3.40 | 4.37 | 5.26 | 6.10 | 6.87 | 7.45 | 8.07 | 8.42 | 8.78 | 8.77 | 8.56 | 7.98 | 6.74 | 4.58 | 44.4 | |
| 15Espanyol | 0.02 | 0.19 | 0.59 | 1.27 | 2.18 | 3.13 | 4.05 | 4.98 | 5.82 | 6.59 | 7.31 | 7.83 | 8.42 | 8.80 | 9.02 | 8.91 | 8.45 | 7.32 | 5.12 | 43.9 | |
| 16Elche | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.49 | 1.10 | 1.92 | 2.86 | 3.79 | 4.66 | 5.59 | 6.39 | 7.18 | 7.86 | 8.49 | 8.96 | 9.28 | 9.33 | 8.87 | 7.70 | 5.34 | 43.5 | |
| 17Levante | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.48 | 1.03 | 1.84 | 2.70 | 3.54 | 4.45 | 5.23 | 6.01 | 6.84 | 7.61 | 8.25 | 8.85 | 9.37 | 9.52 | 9.37 | 8.49 | 6.27 | 43.1 | |
| 18Racing Santander | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.34 | 0.68 | 1.08 | 1.60 | 2.14 | 2.79 | 3.52 | 4.31 | 5.28 | 6.39 | 7.64 | 9.11 | 10.83 | 12.90 | 15.20 | 16.02 | 38.9 | ||
| 19Malaga | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.85 | 1.31 | 1.78 | 2.44 | 3.16 | 3.98 | 4.92 | 6.09 | 7.52 | 9.11 | 11.08 | 13.52 | 16.19 | 17.19 | 38.2 | ||
| 20Deportivo La Coruna | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.38 | 0.59 | 0.89 | 1.30 | 1.81 | 2.49 | 3.41 | 4.70 | 6.45 | 9.04 | 13.04 | 20.08 | 35.44 | 33.9 |
How it's built. Every one of the 380 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial + Dixon–Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Strengths are frozen at pre-season, so this is a start-of-season expectation, not a mid-season read.