Monte Carlo · after matchweek 9 · 20,000 simulated seasons
Where every club finishes: Superliga 2026–27
Published
54 of 132 matches played (through matchweek 9). Points already won are carried in as certain; only the 78 remaining fixtures are simulated. This division splits its table later in the season, which the model does not yet account for, so treat the projection as approximate.
Each row is a club, ordered by expected finish. Each column is a final league position. The cell shading is how often that club finished in that spot across 20,000 simulations, so every row adds up to 100%. Read across a row to see a club's whole range of outcomes.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | Pts | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Copenhagen | 79.36 | 14.41 | 4.42 | 1.41 | 0.33 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 24 | 49.8 | |||||
| 2FC Midtjylland | 12.40 | 38.76 | 24.09 | 14.51 | 6.62 | 2.37 | 0.84 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 19 | 41.3 | |
| 3FC Nordsjaelland | 4.95 | 23.85 | 29.63 | 20.68 | 11.72 | 5.25 | 2.09 | 1.12 | 0.48 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 17 | 38.7 |
| 4Viborg | 2.68 | 15.75 | 22.87 | 25.26 | 17.03 | 8.58 | 4.13 | 2.18 | 0.94 | 0.41 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 17 | 36.5 |
| 5Brondby | 0.55 | 5.83 | 12.84 | 20.26 | 24.09 | 15.47 | 9.21 | 5.49 | 3.27 | 1.70 | 0.98 | 0.30 | 13 | 33.3 |
| 6AC Horsens | 0.03 | 0.52 | 1.81 | 5.05 | 10.35 | 15.83 | 16.48 | 14.54 | 13.28 | 10.53 | 7.55 | 4.04 | 11 | 26.5 |
| 7Silkeborg | 0.01 | 0.36 | 1.75 | 4.70 | 10.03 | 15.43 | 16.71 | 15.77 | 12.81 | 10.65 | 7.55 | 4.24 | 10 | 26.2 |
| 8Aarhus | 0.01 | 0.24 | 1.08 | 3.26 | 7.42 | 12.63 | 15.32 | 15.45 | 14.44 | 12.46 | 9.98 | 7.70 | 5 | 24.7 |
| 9Odense | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.75 | 2.20 | 5.29 | 9.06 | 12.02 | 14.20 | 15.52 | 15.73 | 14.19 | 10.90 | 9 | 23.7 |
| 10Randers FC | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.58 | 1.73 | 4.30 | 8.35 | 11.96 | 14.23 | 16.27 | 16.86 | 15.37 | 10.23 | 10 | 23.4 |
| 11Sonderjyske | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.46 | 1.60 | 3.72 | 6.08 | 8.68 | 11.24 | 15.48 | 20.90 | 31.74 | 5 | 19.7 | |
| 12Lyngby | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.47 | 1.23 | 3.24 | 5.15 | 8.04 | 11.66 | 15.99 | 23.28 | 30.81 | 7 | 19.6 |
How it's built. Every one of the 78 fixtures is played out from each club's attacking and defending strength, a blend of shots-adjusted Elo and last season's goal rates, then adjusted for this summer's transfers on both sides of the ball: a departed 16-goal scorer weakens a club's attack, while an incoming ball-winner (tackles won, interceptions, blocks) strengthens its defence. Scorelines are drawn from the same negative-binomial + Dixon–Coles model the live BetSignals signals use. Those are the fixtures still to be played: points already won are carried in as certain rather than re-simulated. Strengths blend shots-adjusted Elo, last season's goal rates and this season's results, with the current season carrying more weight the longer it goes on.