Every match on BetSignals shows a signal rating: either one, two, or three stars, or a red ✕. This guide explains precisely what each one means and how to use them.
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What the signal rating measures
The signal rating reflects two things at once:
1. Whether the model's two independent models agree on the dominant match outcome
2. How strongly the model probability supports that outcome
If the models disagree, you get a ✕ regardless of what the individual probabilities say. If they agree, the star level is determined by the probability the lead model assigns to the agreed-upon outcome.
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The four ratings explained
✕ No Signal
The two models point to different dominant outcomes. One might favour the home side; the other might lean towards the away team or a draw. BetSignals shows a ✕ rather than issue a signal based on a split view.
★ Weak Signal
Both models agree on the dominant outcome (home win, draw, or away win), but the lead model's probability for that outcome is below 40%. There is a directional lean, but it is not strong.
Useful as a supporting leg in an accumulator, or as context when you are already leaning that way from your own research. Not a reason to back the market on its own.
★★ Good Signal
Both models agree, and the lead model's probability for the agreed outcome is between 40% and 50%. There is meaningful data alignment here, though the outcome is still not the model's outright favourite.
★★★ Strong Signal
Both models agree, and the lead model's probability for the agreed outcome exceeds 50%. This means the model considers this outcome more likely than not, and the second model concurs.
A ★★★ signal is the clearest expression of data alignment in BetSignals. It does not guarantee the outcome (no signal does) but it reflects the strongest level of agreement the system produces.
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What the rating does not tell you
It does not factor in the odds. A ★★★ signal tells you what the model thinks about probability. Whether the bookmaker's price represents value is a separate question. A ★★★ signal on an outcome priced at 1.05 may offer no value at all. A ★★ signal at a generous price might. Always compare model probability against implied probability before acting.
It covers the WDL market. The star rating is based on the home/draw/away match outcome. BTTS, Over 2.5 goals, and Asian Handicap probabilities are shown separately and do not carry the same star rating system.
It does not account for team news. As explained in the model guide, BetSignals uses team performance data only. If a key player is out, that is not reflected in the signal rating.
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How to use signal ratings in practice
Signal ratings are most useful as a filter, not a trigger. A few practical ways to apply them:
Building an accumulator. Many bettors use ★★★ signals as the anchor legs in a multi. The strong data alignment gives a clearer rationale for inclusion than gut feel or form-table glancing. You can read more about this in the smart accumulators guide.
Deciding when to look harder. A ✕ on a fixture you were already considering is a signal to pause, not necessarily to stop.
Tracking your reasoning. If you back a ★ signal and it loses, that is different from if you backed a ★★★ and it lost. Keeping records of which signal levels you acted on helps you understand whether your edge is in the process or just variance. See the record keeping guide for how to track this properly.
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Next reads
- How the BetSignals Model Works: the dual-model approach behind every signal
- Reading Model Confidence Levels: how to interpret the probability numbers behind each rating
- Building Smarter Accumulators: how to use signal ratings when constructing multi-leg bets
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