Willem II: Eredivisie 2026-27 model profile
Where the model has them
The model sees Willem II finishing around 18th in the Eredivisie this season, with a 59.91% chance of relegation and a projected 32.0 points. This downbeat view is driven by their below-average attack strength (0.75 multiplier) and a defence that, whilst not terrible, is still rated leakier than the league average (1.22 multiplier). Their attacking Elo of 1509 and defensive Elo of 1526, reflecting their promotion from the division below, further underpin this projection.
In attack
The attacking picture is not pretty. With an attack strength multiplier of 0.75 (1.00 is the league average), Willem II are below par in the final third. Eser Gürbüz, their top scorer last season with a solitary goal in 16 appearances, hardly screams firepower. Kasper Boogaard chipped in with 2 assists in 15 games and had 7 shots, but that's a meagre return. The attack lacks a proven, high-volume scorer, which is a serious problem at this level.
In defence
Defensively, it's a mixed bag. The 1.22 defence multiplier (lower is better) suggests they'll concede more than the average side. Hidde ter Avest leads the way with 18 tackles in 12 appearances, a solid 3.65 tackles per 90 minutes. Boogaard and Gürbüz also contribute in defensive actions, with 3.03 and 2.35 per 90 respectively. But this defence, whilst not a complete sieve, is still a soft spot compared to the top sides.
What the window changed
The transfer window did little to shift the dial. The attack multiplier nudged up from 0.74 to 0.75, whilst the defence stayed at 1.22. Boogaard, who arrived as both an attacking and defensive signing, will be key. He managed 0 goals last season but did contribute 2 assists and 31 defensive actions. It's a marginal improvement, but nothing transformative.
Weaknesses and risks
The main risks to this projection are clear: a lack of proven attacking talent and a defence that, whilst solid enough, is still rated below average. They're newly promoted, so much of the squad is unproven at this level. If they can't find some goals, that relegation probability of 59.91% starts to look very real. The model's view is stark: Willem II are in for a tough season.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Eser Gürbüz | 1 | 0.06 | 6% |
| Assists | Kasper Boogaard | 2 | 0.13 | 13% |
| Shots | Kasper Boogaard | 7 | 0.47 | 40% |
| Tackles won | Hidde ter Avest | 18 | 1.5 | 83% |
| Fouls drawn | Jaden Slory | 17 | 0.94 | 61% |
| Fouls committed | Kasper Boogaard | 18 | 1.2 | 60% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Hidde ter Avest | 3.65 | 12 |
| Kasper Boogaard | 3.03 | 15 |
| Eser Gürbüz | 2.35 | 16 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Kasper Boogaard (0g), out -
- Defence: in Kasper Boogaard (31 def actions), out -
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._