VfL Wolfsburg: 2. Bundesliga 2026-27 model profile
Where the model has them
The model projects VfL Wolfsburg to finish around 1st this season, with a 51.95% chance of taking the title, an 88.85% chance of finishing in the top four, and a relegation probability of just 0.02%. That’s 65.6 expected points. This projection is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 1.53 (1.00 being the league average, higher meaning stronger) and a defence multiplier of 0.88 (1.00 being average, lower meaning stronger). Their attacking Elo is 1604, whilst their defending Elo is 1598. They’re stepping down a level into this division after relegation, not promoted from it.
In attack
Wolfsburg’s attack is 53% stronger than the average 2. Bundesliga side. Key to this is Fraser Hornby, who scored 11 goals in 24 appearances last season. Fabian Reese, who arrived in the transfer window, also brings firepower with 10 goals last season. Reese also leads the squad in assists with 13 and shot volume with 75 in 32 appearances. The top scorers in the squad are Hornby with 11 goals and 8 assists, Reese with 10 goals and 13 assists, and Mohamed Amoura with 8 goals and 3 assists.
In defence
Their defence is 12% stronger than average, with a defence multiplier of 0.88. Leading the defensive actions are Vinícius Souza with 4.63 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Joakim Mæhle with 4.05, and Kilian Fischer with 3.92. This suggests a solid defensive unit, but not one that stands out as exceptionally strong.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw significant changes to both attack and defence. The attack multiplier moved from 1.33 to 1.53, largely thanks to the arrival of Fabian Reese, who scored 10 goals last season. On the departures side, Patrick Wimmer, who scored 4 goals, left. Defensively, the arrival of Hauke Wahl, who had 86 defensive actions last season, moved the defence multiplier from 0.77 to 0.88. The departure of Konstantinos Koulierakis slightly weakened the defence.
Weaknesses and risks
The model sees two main weaknesses. Firstly, Wolfsburg lacks a proven high-volume scorer from last season, with Fraser Hornby’s 11 goals being the best in the squad. Secondly, they’re a relegated side stepping down into this division, meaning the squad may yet be broken up, and the model has no record of them at this level. These factors are the main risks to the projection.
---
Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Fraser Hornby | 11 | 0.46 | 33% |
| Assists | Fabian Reese | 13 | 0.41 | 38% |
| Shots | Fabian Reese | 75 | 2.34 | 91% |
| Tackles won | Vinícius Souza | 58 | 2.42 | 92% |
| Fouls drawn | Vinícius Souza | 23 | 0.96 | 63% |
| Fouls committed | Vinícius Souza | 41 | 1.71 | 83% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Vinícius Souza | 4.63 | 24 |
| Joakim Mæhle | 4.05 | 17 |
| Kilian Fischer | 3.92 | 11 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Fabian Reese (10g), out Patrick Wimmer (4g)
- Defence: in Hauke Wahl (86 def actions), out Konstantinos Koulierakis
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._