Where the model has them
The model has VfL Osnabrück projected to finish around 18th in the 2. Bundesliga this season. The chances of them winning the title are 0.02%, making a top-four finish 0.62%. Relegation looms large with a 52.30% probability. The model expects them to end the season with 35.1 points. This outlook is driven by their attack strength multiplier of 0.75 (league average is 1.00, so below average) and a defence multiplier of 1.1 (higher than 1.00, meaning a weaker defence). Their attacking Elo stands at 1453 and defending Elo at 1490, both influenced by their promotion from the division below.
In attack
Osnabrück's attack is rated below the league average with a strength multiplier of 0.75. Key attacking figures include Luca Raimund, who managed just 1 goal in 14 appearances last season, accounting for 7% of their games. Jonas Krumrey provided 1 assist in 22 appearances, representing 5% of their games. Leon Opitz had the most shots with 4 in 13 appearances, making up 31% of their games. With Raimund as the top scorer in the squad at 1 goal and 0 assists, it's clear the attack lacks a proven high-volume scorer.
In defence
Defensively, Osnabrück is rated as leakier than average with a defence multiplier of 1.1. Key players in defensive actions include Joel Abu Hanna with 2.34 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Raimund with 2.33 per 90, and Konrad Faber with 2.14 per 90. Faber also won 23 tackles in 23 appearances, making up 65% of their games. Despite these efforts, the defence is seen as a soft spot.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw minor tweaks to Osnabrück's projections. The attack multiplier stayed at 0.75, whilst the defence multiplier nudged up from 1.09 to 1.1. Luca Raimund, with his single goal last season, remains the key attacking arrival. Defensively, Konrad Faber's addition, with 36 defensive actions, is noted but hasn't significantly altered the defensive outlook.
Weaknesses and risks
The model's main concerns for Osnabrück revolve around their unproven squad at this level, an attack below the league average, and a defence that's leakier than average. The lack of a high-volume scorer and the defensive vulnerabilities are the primary risks underpinning their projected 18th place finish and high relegation probability.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Luca Raimund | 1 | 0.07 | 7% |
| Assists | Jonas Krumrey | 1 | 0.05 | 5% |
| Shots | Leon Opitz | 4 | 0.31 | 31% |
| Tackles won | Konrad Faber | 23 | 1 | 65% |
| Fouls drawn | Konrad Faber | 23 | 1 | 56% |
| Fouls committed | Joel Abu Hanna | 12 | 0.92 | 54% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Abu Hanna | 2.34 | 13 |
| Luca Raimund | 2.33 | 14 |
| Konrad Faber | 2.14 | 23 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Luca Raimund (1g), out -
- Defence: in Konrad Faber (36 def actions), out -
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._