Where the model has them
The model projects VfL Bochum to finish around 11th this season, with a 0.78% chance of winning the title, a 10.47% shot at the top four, and a 10.83% risk of relegation. Expected points sit at 45.4. This outlook is driven by their attack and defence strength, reflected in their multipliers and Elo ratings. The attack strength multiplier is 0.96 (league average is 1.00, so below average), whilst their defence multiplier is 1.00 (league average). Their attacking Elo is 1539 and their defensive Elo is 1569, showing a slightly stronger defence than attack.
In attack
The model rates Bochum's attack as below average, with a strength multiplier of 0.96. Key players here are Philipp Hofmann, who scored 12 goals in 32 appearances last season, and Gerrit Holtmann, who had 37 shots in 25 games. Maximilian Wittek chipped in with 7 assists in 29 appearances. Hofmann remains the top scorer in the squad with 12 goals and 6 assists last season, followed by Holtmann with 5 goals and 2 assists, and Koji Miyoshi with 3 goals and 3 assists. The attack lacks a standout star, which is why the multiplier is below 1.00.
In defence
On the defensive side, Bochum looks solid with a defence multiplier of 1.00, which is exactly average. Their defensive-actions leaders are Oliver Olsen with 4.82 tackles, interceptions, and blocks per 90 minutes, Enis Çokaj with 3.87, and Mats Pannewig with 3.75. This suggests a balanced and dependable backline, though nothing spectacular. The defence multiplier and the Elo rating indicate a unit that should hold its own without standing out as a major strength or a soft spot.
What the window changed
The transfer window saw some key moves that nudged the model's numbers. The arrival of Daniel Hanslik, who scored 3 goals last season, slightly weakened the attack, moving the attack multiplier from 1 to 0.96. Francis Onyeka's departure, after scoring 8 goals last term, also played a part in this shift. Defensively, the addition of Oliver Olsen, who racked up 127 defensive actions last season, strengthened the backline, moving the defence multiplier from 0.91 to 1.00. Cajetan Lenz's exit had a lesser impact. Overall, the window made Bochum a tad less potent in attack but shored up their defence.
Weaknesses and risks
The model doesn't flag any specific weaknesses for Bochum this season. The main risk to their projected 11th place finish lies in their below-average attack. If Hofmann and Holtmann don't fire on all cylinders, Bochum could struggle to score enough goals to climb the table. Their defence looks solid enough to avoid relegation, but the attack will need to step up if they harbour any top-four ambitions.
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Key players (last season)
| Category | Player | Total | Per game | 1+ rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Philipp Hofmann | 12 | 0.38 | 31% |
| Assists | Maximilian Wittek | 7 | 0.24 | 21% |
| Shots | Gerrit Holtmann | 37 | 1.48 | 72% |
| Tackles won | Maximilian Wittek | 54 | 1.86 | 83% |
| Fouls drawn | Enis Çokaj | 47 | 1.52 | 74% |
| Fouls committed | Oliver Olsen | 49 | 1.63 | 83% |
Defensive-actions leaders (per 90)
| Player | Tackles+Int+Blocks /90 | Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Oliver Olsen | 4.82 | 30 |
| Enis Çokaj | 3.87 | 31 |
| Mats Pannewig | 3.75 | 27 |
Transfer impact (model)
- Attack: in Daniel Hanslik (3g), out Francis Onyeka (8g)
- Defence: in Oliver Olsen (127 def actions), out Cajetan Lenz
_Model profile generated from the BetSignals season simulation. Player figures are last season's totals._