The Main Pick
Eliteserien kicks off tonight at 18:00 with a fixture between Bodo/Glimt and Viking. Both our models independently favour Viking to win this one, and the market price of 4.5 for a Viking victory implies a much lower probability than the models calculate. The primary model gives Viking a 49.8% win probability, Bodo/Glimt 30.3%, and a draw 19.4%. Both models agree on the direction: Viking to win.
The sG (signal goals) for Bodo/Glimt is 1.78, whilst Viking's is 2.33. The BTTS (both teams to score) probability is 64.9%, and the over 2.5 goals probability is 66.1%. These numbers suggest a high-scoring affair, which aligns with the model's view that Viking has the edge.
Looking at recent form, Bodo/Glimt have been strong at home, winning 4 out of their last 5 home games, scoring 2.2 goals per game and conceding 1.2. Their average home shots are 17.5 per game, with 5.8 on target. Viking's away form is more mixed, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 4 away games. They score 1.25 goals per game on the road and concede 1.75, with an average of 13.5 shots per game and 5.8 on target.
The market price for a Viking win is 4.5, whilst the model's fair odds are 2.01. This implies a value edge of 124.1% in favour of Viking. The market is undervaluing Viking by a significant margin, according to our models.
Also Worth Watching
In Ligue 1 tonight, the models have identified a value opportunity favouring the away team. Keep an eye on this one.
The Bundesliga also offers a value pick tonight, with the model favouring the away side. This could be worth a look.
Check the Signals Page
For all of today's value selections, head to the signals page.